Morning Market Brief - 10/09/13

Of the three pairs, EURUSD managed to make some decent moves, having broken the key price point of 1.32375, closing the day higher.

EURUSD - Daily Charts, 10/09/13

Today will be important to see if this level has indeed been breached. A close higher indicates a move to 1.342. 4-hour Stochs are in the overbought area, so there could be some moves to the downside. What matters is the daily close today. I expect a bounce off 1.32316 level and will be watching the 4-hour price action. A 4-hour close below this level along with a bearish stochs could be the first signs of a possible exhaustion in the upside move to 1.34.

EURUSD - H4 Chart

The Yen pairs literally seem to be stuck in a range. Today's early data from China came out modest but better than expected. Nikkei has been positive for most of the Tokyo session.

GBPJPY is looking to break the 156 region. Should that happen, we'll be dropping the GBPJPY pair off our watch list.

The US Dollar Index is down 0.1% at the time of publishing this article. It is looking bearish (since last Friday), currently at 81.73. If this continues, expect the USDX to drop to 81 - 80.50 levels.

US Dollar Index - 09/09/13, Close

In stocks, Staples and GS are looking good on the portfolio for now.

Not much of economic data today or tomorrow, so the Yen pairs could just continue ranging. Congress goes to vote tomorrow in regards to a military strike. Ironic that on the anniversary of 9/11 we have the US planning to vote whether to support the rebels who already have the backing of Al-Qaeda and the bigger irony is that of Obama, a Nobel peace laureate who wants a war, much against international opinion which recommends a UN resolution.

Sep-taper is going to turn out interesting. More and more editorials coming out trying to understand the recent jobs data. The general take away is that the unemployment rate dropped due to reduced work-force participation, furthermore a downward revision of June/July figures hints a slow recovery phase. Fed might be looking at a small taper of $10bn. There's also the talk of the famed US Debt Ceiling end of September. Contrarian views suggest Bernanke would hold off any taper at least until the debt ceiling issue (which the US Congress famously is known for burning the midnight oil) is resolved, which could mean we'll be looking at a possible Octaper?? Also concerns from emerging markets on capital flight needs to be taken into consideration, least it spirals into another crisis rubbing off from one economy to another.