We have all seen the various headlines, advertisements and marketing hype.
"Use Japanese Candlesticks to spot reversals!" "Learn the secrets of the pros." "Learn when to take profits." "Learn how to predict reversals before they occur!"
The problem is that you can not spot reversals or changes in trends until "after" they have occurred. No one can, although many claim to be able to do that.
Those who claim the ability to request changes and reversals in trends "in advance," also expect you to believe that they have to "predict" the future. Possibility
After more than 20 years of market timing experience, take our word for it ... No one can predict with certainty or consistency, what the market will do. Of course, with so many analysts predictions on a daily basis, someone will get a prediction. Well But doing it consistently is something else again.
No one can predict with any consistency, the future.
The only thing we can predict with certainty ... markets will constantly change.
So if there is no way to predict what the market will do, how the time of the markets?
By trading the long-term trends inherent in the free market and always will be. Based on hundreds of years of history, the markets usually in an up trend or a down trend for sustained periods. Look at the long-term chart, and it will be clear.
This is a fact. And that fact a winning strategy can be created.
The Question Of Time Frame
How do we get set a trend started?
Simply put, all we can depend on in the stock market is the price. Price will change either up or down. Change is constant. If the price moves higher for a longer period of time, we are in an up trend. If the price moves lower for a longer period of time, we are in a downward trend.
The issue of time is quickly fund timers can not, by definition, are day traders. So a change in the price at the top for a few hours, while an up trend to a very short-term oriented trader, it is useless for a fund timer.
The timetable for the fund timers in weeks and months, with the emphasis on "months." There is no way around it. If a timer fund trades more often, he or she will face a much higher percentage of losing trades as markets change so quickly from day to day the short-term trends are much harder to sell.
But remember what we said before ... History shows that trends occurring in the markets in recent months and even years. In fact, the exchange trending measurable long-term trends in about 80% of the time.
Think 2000 to 2002, a clear downward trend. Think March to December 2003, when the market rally non-stop. Long-term trends that are easy to see on historical charts. They can also be traded with high profitability, time, with trend trading strategies.
If Trend Traders We Aim For The Moon
Trend traders, as we are in Fibtimer, try not to catch exact tops. Also know we are trying to catch. Exact bottoms
We do not believe that anyone can.
Of course, with hundreds of different views available, anytime someone will always lucky and call an exact bottom or top. The financial news media is quick to deal with the hype.
But try and do it over and over and over.
So how do trend traders know when a trend and started?
The answer is ... "After" is started. Using the prices, which is the only measurement of the markets that can "always" be depended upon, we can define rules that when we create. In a trend
We could say that if the market rises a certain percent of a low, that we in an up trend. At that point, we can take. A long, bullish position
But when we leave? We left after we get a return of 10%? Or maybe a 20% target and cross our fingers?
No. .. trend timers as we strive for the moon. If a trend is 200% we want to be on board of our entry point, right at the 200% point. We want it all.
But, how do we know when to exit? The answer is simple ...
Going For The Home Run
We leave "after" the trend is over, and not until then. That means continuing to "after" reverses the trend.
When we begin to trade, we are looking for a home run. The sky is the limit.
We do not close until the market turns and the "prices" have moved far enough in the "reverse" direction to tell a "new" trend we probably started. Trading off
This means that we usually do not get on or off at any exact bottom. It also means that we do not usually get on or off at each vertex. It means that sometimes we take small losses when our requirement is for a new trend, but the trend fails (and they do ... think of the 20% of the time the markets are not a trend).
But more importantly, it means we never miss any significant trends, and we run every trend so far leads us! All identified trends are traded. All of them.
This is where the market timers make their big profits. They go through the occasional dull sideways markets, but if the market does trend, they are "always" on board for most of that trend.
By always go for the home run, trend traders, such as baseball players, you many strikeouts (small losses). But be obliterated by the home runs, we drive for all they are worth. Those strikeouts
In the aggressive strategies, we make money in both up trends and down trends. These are the strategies that big score during bear markets.
And important in all our timing strategies, we cut our losses when a trend not follow through.
Great fortunes are made trading trends. It takes a strategy. It takes discipline, because you have to stick to the strategy in all market knowing that no one knows when the next trend will start.
But by trading trends, you know that over time you will beat the market and be hugely profitable.
"Use Japanese Candlesticks to spot reversals!" "Learn the secrets of the pros." "Learn when to take profits." "Learn how to predict reversals before they occur!"
The problem is that you can not spot reversals or changes in trends until "after" they have occurred. No one can, although many claim to be able to do that.
Those who claim the ability to request changes and reversals in trends "in advance," also expect you to believe that they have to "predict" the future. Possibility
After more than 20 years of market timing experience, take our word for it ... No one can predict with certainty or consistency, what the market will do. Of course, with so many analysts predictions on a daily basis, someone will get a prediction. Well But doing it consistently is something else again.
No one can predict with any consistency, the future.
The only thing we can predict with certainty ... markets will constantly change.
So if there is no way to predict what the market will do, how the time of the markets?
By trading the long-term trends inherent in the free market and always will be. Based on hundreds of years of history, the markets usually in an up trend or a down trend for sustained periods. Look at the long-term chart, and it will be clear.
This is a fact. And that fact a winning strategy can be created.
The Question Of Time Frame
How do we get set a trend started?
Simply put, all we can depend on in the stock market is the price. Price will change either up or down. Change is constant. If the price moves higher for a longer period of time, we are in an up trend. If the price moves lower for a longer period of time, we are in a downward trend.
The issue of time is quickly fund timers can not, by definition, are day traders. So a change in the price at the top for a few hours, while an up trend to a very short-term oriented trader, it is useless for a fund timer.
The timetable for the fund timers in weeks and months, with the emphasis on "months." There is no way around it. If a timer fund trades more often, he or she will face a much higher percentage of losing trades as markets change so quickly from day to day the short-term trends are much harder to sell.
But remember what we said before ... History shows that trends occurring in the markets in recent months and even years. In fact, the exchange trending measurable long-term trends in about 80% of the time.
Think 2000 to 2002, a clear downward trend. Think March to December 2003, when the market rally non-stop. Long-term trends that are easy to see on historical charts. They can also be traded with high profitability, time, with trend trading strategies.
If Trend Traders We Aim For The Moon
Trend traders, as we are in Fibtimer, try not to catch exact tops. Also know we are trying to catch. Exact bottoms
We do not believe that anyone can.
Of course, with hundreds of different views available, anytime someone will always lucky and call an exact bottom or top. The financial news media is quick to deal with the hype.
But try and do it over and over and over.
So how do trend traders know when a trend and started?
The answer is ... "After" is started. Using the prices, which is the only measurement of the markets that can "always" be depended upon, we can define rules that when we create. In a trend
We could say that if the market rises a certain percent of a low, that we in an up trend. At that point, we can take. A long, bullish position
But when we leave? We left after we get a return of 10%? Or maybe a 20% target and cross our fingers?
No. .. trend timers as we strive for the moon. If a trend is 200% we want to be on board of our entry point, right at the 200% point. We want it all.
But, how do we know when to exit? The answer is simple ...
Going For The Home Run
We leave "after" the trend is over, and not until then. That means continuing to "after" reverses the trend.
When we begin to trade, we are looking for a home run. The sky is the limit.
We do not close until the market turns and the "prices" have moved far enough in the "reverse" direction to tell a "new" trend we probably started. Trading off
This means that we usually do not get on or off at any exact bottom. It also means that we do not usually get on or off at each vertex. It means that sometimes we take small losses when our requirement is for a new trend, but the trend fails (and they do ... think of the 20% of the time the markets are not a trend).
But more importantly, it means we never miss any significant trends, and we run every trend so far leads us! All identified trends are traded. All of them.
This is where the market timers make their big profits. They go through the occasional dull sideways markets, but if the market does trend, they are "always" on board for most of that trend.
By always go for the home run, trend traders, such as baseball players, you many strikeouts (small losses). But be obliterated by the home runs, we drive for all they are worth. Those strikeouts
In the aggressive strategies, we make money in both up trends and down trends. These are the strategies that big score during bear markets.
And important in all our timing strategies, we cut our losses when a trend not follow through.
Great fortunes are made trading trends. It takes a strategy. It takes discipline, because you have to stick to the strategy in all market knowing that no one knows when the next trend will start.
But by trading trends, you know that over time you will beat the market and be hugely profitable.
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