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| EURUSD - 30 Minutes |
Stops: 1.30391
Target: 1.31268
Converging Triangles Analysis - EURUSD, 30 M
Stops: 1.30391
Target: 1.31268
GBPJPY - Rally is over?
On the 12 hour charts, we see a perfect triangle being formed along with the fact that the price targets on the first set of signals were nicely respected.
To summarize, the high point in the triangle (A) was at 147.885, point B was formed at 137.748, while the breakout to the upside happened at 145.976. As such our upper target would be 145.976 + ((147.885 - 137.748)/2) = 151.044
Price reached this peak last Friday and now we can expect to see a drop.
Therefore, our price target would be 135.838.
Expect price to drop or come close to this level within the next 48 - 56 hours, somewhere around this Thursday/Friday.
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| GBPJPY Signals |
Price reached this peak last Friday and now we can expect to see a drop.
Therefore, our price target would be 135.838.
Expect price to drop or come close to this level within the next 48 - 56 hours, somewhere around this Thursday/Friday.
The Forex Crystal Ball - Predicting Prices
A bit obsessed with my trading method. Can't spare a detailed explanation but this post is just an update to see some price targets being achieved.
Notes: Price can vary +/- 10 - 20 pips. Same with dates, +/- 2 - 5 days.
AUDCAD - 1.03899 (Tentatively around 12/04)
Rounded off: 1.04 (Anytime from 10th - 19th April)
XAGUSD - 34.44 (Tentatively around 22/04)
Rounded off: 33.4 (Anytime from 18th - 26th April)
XAUUSD - 1600.58 (Tentatively around 10/04)
Rounded off: 1595 (Anytime from 9th - 16th April)
EURUSD - 1.390 (Tentatively around 30/06)
Rounded off: 1.35 (Anytime from May)
Notes: Price can vary +/- 10 - 20 pips. Same with dates, +/- 2 - 5 days.
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| AUDCAD |
Rounded off: 1.04 (Anytime from 10th - 19th April)
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| XAGUSD |
Rounded off: 33.4 (Anytime from 18th - 26th April)
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| XAUUSD |
Rounded off: 1595 (Anytime from 9th - 16th April)
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| EURUSD |
Rounded off: 1.35 (Anytime from May)
Is this it for the Euro?
Noticed an interesting phenomenon. The Euro gently touched 1.28447, which coincides with our converging triangles. The big question on my mind is did we just hit a resistance level and is this the end of this brief bull rally for the Euro?
According to the previous analysis, Euro should move somewhere to the range of 1.29 region (maybe 1.288 too) before price can drop back to the normal levels.
Anyways, we have the ISM services data coming out shortly. The manufacturing data we saw earlier this week came out less than expected which managed to drive up the Euro. Let's hope the services data will be able to do the same for us.
Should we see a continued bearish candles being formed, then the ideal spot to enter would be around 1.279 with take profits set to 1.27 and 1.265.
Fingers crossed!!!
According to the previous analysis, Euro should move somewhere to the range of 1.29 region (maybe 1.288 too) before price can drop back to the normal levels.
Anyways, we have the ISM services data coming out shortly. The manufacturing data we saw earlier this week came out less than expected which managed to drive up the Euro. Let's hope the services data will be able to do the same for us.
Should we see a continued bearish candles being formed, then the ideal spot to enter would be around 1.279 with take profits set to 1.27 and 1.265.
Fingers crossed!!!
USDCHF - Bears taking control
The Swiss has been moving in a tight range over the past few days. However, you cannot quite ignore the fact that a bearish momentum is slowly taking shape.
Previously, we were long on the Swiss franc but an hour ago, closed all the long positions and have now entered short.
The likely price target is 0.93525 and the chart below shows the triangles on the 4-hour chart.
A conservative trade would be to short this pair around the 50% level of 0.94593 with take profits set to 0.938. It will take a while for this pair to clear the trade though, so once the trade is opened, expect to see quite some swaps being deducted. That being said, we can expect the Swiss franc to drop quite a bit during next week.
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| USDCHF - Shorting the pair |
The likely price target is 0.93525 and the chart below shows the triangles on the 4-hour chart.
A conservative trade would be to short this pair around the 50% level of 0.94593 with take profits set to 0.938. It will take a while for this pair to clear the trade though, so once the trade is opened, expect to see quite some swaps being deducted. That being said, we can expect the Swiss franc to drop quite a bit during next week.
EURUSD - A move to the upside today?
Following up on our trade, the Euro is showing some signs of strength today with the technical indicators pointing to an upside move. In the chart below, we have the 4 hour EurUsd chart. If you look to the Stochastics, we are seeing a bullish bias being formed. Refer to the previous post, Sell once this brief bull rally is done.
I drew up a Fib against the peaks of Point A and B. Should price break out of this triangle, we can expect to see the break out happen between the 38.2 and 23.6 levels. As such a safe long entry would be at 1.286 with potential take profit set to 1.29342. The move is likely to go up to 1.29693.
Once we are in this region, we can expect the Euro to drop dramatically, down to 1.2523 region. What will determine this drop will most likely be based on the amount of time it would take for price to move to our projected region of 1.296.
In my previous analysis on the EURUSD, I mentioned that price is likely to reach the 1.26 levels around Thursday/Friday. Based on this input, we can assume that the Euro would go up just a little bit in order to fit into our overall analysis.
Those in the Short should adjust their stops and can look to adding to their short positions around the 1.29 levels.
I drew up a Fib against the peaks of Point A and B. Should price break out of this triangle, we can expect to see the break out happen between the 38.2 and 23.6 levels. As such a safe long entry would be at 1.286 with potential take profit set to 1.29342. The move is likely to go up to 1.29693.
Once we are in this region, we can expect the Euro to drop dramatically, down to 1.2523 region. What will determine this drop will most likely be based on the amount of time it would take for price to move to our projected region of 1.296.
In my previous analysis on the EURUSD, I mentioned that price is likely to reach the 1.26 levels around Thursday/Friday. Based on this input, we can assume that the Euro would go up just a little bit in order to fit into our overall analysis.
Those in the Short should adjust their stops and can look to adding to their short positions around the 1.29 levels.
Where is Gold heading to?
It was only a few days back that Gold prices showed some signs of strenght moving towards 1600 levels but not before falling again. Gold prices at the time of writing is hovering near the 1585 levels. With all the hulabalo about Gold prices strengthening as various Central banks across the globe embark on monetary easing, one can only wonder what happened to Gold.
So let's take a look at Gold and see what's happening.
In the daily charts below, we see a converging triangle being formed. A breakout below 1570 is likely to see Gold prices drop to the region of 1538 levels.
As mentioned in the trading methodology, we enter our trades based on the triangles signal qualification. Meaning that ideally Gold should reach the 1538 level in order for us to take our position. As such, you could set up a price alert for Gold to reach this region in order to go long.
The most ideal scenario is that we could expect to see Gold prices reverse around these levels (1538 - 1537) and finally the Gold bulls can enjoy some bull run. The estimated price projection is about 1642 - 1643 region.
However, at this point the above analysis is purely speculation and also the timing is a bit too early. We'll wait out for a few days for prices to hit the bottom in order to build up a more concrete trading plan for Gold.
So let's take a look at Gold and see what's happening.
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| Gold Price Analysis |
As mentioned in the trading methodology, we enter our trades based on the triangles signal qualification. Meaning that ideally Gold should reach the 1538 level in order for us to take our position. As such, you could set up a price alert for Gold to reach this region in order to go long.
The most ideal scenario is that we could expect to see Gold prices reverse around these levels (1538 - 1537) and finally the Gold bulls can enjoy some bull run. The estimated price projection is about 1642 - 1643 region.
However, at this point the above analysis is purely speculation and also the timing is a bit too early. We'll wait out for a few days for prices to hit the bottom in order to build up a more concrete trading plan for Gold.
EURUSD - Sell once the short bull rally is done
This analysis is a continuation of my previous EURUSD trade. As mentioned, we're still a good 2 days away from price to reach our estimated target range. As such, on the 1 hour EURUSD charts, we have a short bull rally being formed.
For those in the trade, you could either choose to get out now, or ride through this short spike.
For those who missed out this trade, entering at the peak of this bull rally would be ideal.
In order to figure this out, just look to stochs for a confirmation on the peaks. Price would be ranging in the zone of 1.288 - 1.284. Look for stochs cutting the signal line pointing downwards in order to enter short again.
For those in the trade, you could either choose to get out now, or ride through this short spike.
For those who missed out this trade, entering at the peak of this bull rally would be ideal.
In order to figure this out, just look to stochs for a confirmation on the peaks. Price would be ranging in the zone of 1.288 - 1.284. Look for stochs cutting the signal line pointing downwards in order to enter short again.
CHFJPY - Bearish Outlook, 95
Swiss Franc is setting itself up for a nice bearish move with potential price target in the range of 95.
In the chart below, we have the converging triangles plotted between swing high/low points of 103.619 and 94.64
A breakout from the triangles has already been formed at 99.617, thus our stop loss would be set to 101 while we enter the markets at the current price.
Our estimated price point is 97.127
Once we have our price reaching this zone, we can then look for a possible BUY signal being formed. Should price drop to our estimated regions, we could place a pending BUY at 98, with take profit of 105.468.
In the chart below, we have the converging triangles plotted between swing high/low points of 103.619 and 94.64
A breakout from the triangles has already been formed at 99.617, thus our stop loss would be set to 101 while we enter the markets at the current price.
Our estimated price point is 97.127
Once we have our price reaching this zone, we can then look for a possible BUY signal being formed. Should price drop to our estimated regions, we could place a pending BUY at 98, with take profit of 105.468.
EURUSD - Expecting to see 1.267
Here's the latest analysis on EURUSD based on the Triangles and Wolfe wave method.
We have a clearly formed triangle and price managed to break out from the converging trend lines.
The distance between points A and B = 0.01376 Pips in total.
As such, the first breakout candle opened at 1.28095, thus giving us our first target price at 1.28783, which is nothing but 1.28095 + 0.00688 = 1.28783
Now from this point according to our trading method, we expect price to drop 3 times the distance of 0.00688. Therefore our actual wolfe wave price target is at 1.28783 + (0.00688x3) = 1.26719.
We could round this off to either 1.267 or maybe even 1.27.
In terms of the number of candles from break out to the price high it took a total of 19, one hour candles. So we expect a total of 57 one hour candles (19x3) before we expect price to drop to our expected levels. This is about 2 days and a half.
At the time of publishing this chart, we see 8 candles already being formed. Also note that based on the price high candle, which formed on 02/04 (0600 hours, GMT+2) we expect EURUSD to reach our target price region of 1.27 around Friday afternoon 1500 hours (GMT+2).
Update: Focus on Fundamental Factors
Given the two days estimated for our projected Euro target region, I thought it would be good to also include some fundamental factors that will basically be our driving force for the prices.
On Wedesnday, April 4th the key economic indicator to look at would be the ADP non farm unemployment change and the ISM non manufacturing PMI data.
You might know that last Monday, (1st April) the ISM Manufacturing slumped a bit, falling below expectations of 54.2 which managed to strengthen the Euro as a result, against the US Dollar.
Looking forward, on April 4th, Thursday the key data to look into would be from the Eurozone, with Spanish and Italian PMI data due to be out. There is not much of a surprise here as to what the actual outcome isg oing to be, however it might not be strong enough to push prices to our 'sweet zone'
Thursday is also packed with ECB press conference and the US unemployment claims.
Putting this all into perspective, you can expect the Euro to jump around a bit before settling into our sweet zone.
We have a clearly formed triangle and price managed to break out from the converging trend lines.
The distance between points A and B = 0.01376 Pips in total.
As such, the first breakout candle opened at 1.28095, thus giving us our first target price at 1.28783, which is nothing but 1.28095 + 0.00688 = 1.28783
Now from this point according to our trading method, we expect price to drop 3 times the distance of 0.00688. Therefore our actual wolfe wave price target is at 1.28783 + (0.00688x3) = 1.26719.
We could round this off to either 1.267 or maybe even 1.27.
In terms of the number of candles from break out to the price high it took a total of 19, one hour candles. So we expect a total of 57 one hour candles (19x3) before we expect price to drop to our expected levels. This is about 2 days and a half.
At the time of publishing this chart, we see 8 candles already being formed. Also note that based on the price high candle, which formed on 02/04 (0600 hours, GMT+2) we expect EURUSD to reach our target price region of 1.27 around Friday afternoon 1500 hours (GMT+2).
Update: Focus on Fundamental Factors
Given the two days estimated for our projected Euro target region, I thought it would be good to also include some fundamental factors that will basically be our driving force for the prices.
On Wedesnday, April 4th the key economic indicator to look at would be the ADP non farm unemployment change and the ISM non manufacturing PMI data.
You might know that last Monday, (1st April) the ISM Manufacturing slumped a bit, falling below expectations of 54.2 which managed to strengthen the Euro as a result, against the US Dollar.
Looking forward, on April 4th, Thursday the key data to look into would be from the Eurozone, with Spanish and Italian PMI data due to be out. There is not much of a surprise here as to what the actual outcome isg oing to be, however it might not be strong enough to push prices to our 'sweet zone'
Thursday is also packed with ECB press conference and the US unemployment claims.
Putting this all into perspective, you can expect the Euro to jump around a bit before settling into our sweet zone.
USDJPY - Triangles, reached TP
Here's another trade that went off amazing. USDJPY reached TP as estimated by triangles. We now wait for the pivot 5 to be formed, which could be around 93.26 and we go long on the trade.
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| USDJPY - Triangles, TP Reached |
Triangles + Wolfe Waves (EURCAD)
Here's a trade that I have taken, going long on EURCAD. The chart below has all the detailed explanation on the estimated price targets.
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| EURCAD - Triangles & Wolfe Waves |
April - Gone Fishing (Forex Demo Contest)
There won't be much updates in April. Just signed up for a forex demo contest that starts from tomorrow and will be putting some of the trading methods to test.
Fingers crossed.
Fingers crossed.
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