Is this it for the Euro?

Noticed an interesting phenomenon. The Euro gently touched 1.28447, which coincides with our converging triangles. The big question on my mind is did we just hit a resistance level and is this the end of this brief bull rally for the Euro?

According to the previous analysis, Euro should move somewhere to the range of 1.29 region (maybe 1.288 too) before price can drop back to the normal levels.

Anyways, we have the ISM services data coming out shortly. The manufacturing data we saw earlier this week came out less than expected which managed to drive up the Euro. Let's hope the services data will be able to do the same for us.

Should we see a continued bearish candles being formed, then the ideal spot to enter would be around 1.279 with take profits set to 1.27 and 1.265.

Fingers crossed!!!

USDCHF - Bears taking control

The Swiss has been moving in a tight range over the past few days. However, you cannot quite ignore the fact that a bearish momentum is slowly taking shape.

USDCHF - Shorting the pair

Previously, we were long on the Swiss franc but an hour ago, closed all the long positions and have now entered short.

The likely price target is 0.93525 and the chart below shows the triangles on the 4-hour chart.

A conservative trade would be to short this pair around the 50% level of 0.94593 with take profits set to 0.938. It will take a while for this pair to clear the trade though, so once the trade is opened, expect to see quite some swaps being deducted. That being said, we can expect the Swiss franc to drop quite a bit during next week.

EURUSD - A move to the upside today?

Following up on our trade, the Euro is showing some signs of strength today with the technical indicators pointing to an upside move. In the chart below, we have the 4 hour EurUsd chart. If you look to the Stochastics, we are seeing a bullish bias being formed. Refer to the previous post, Sell once this brief bull rally is done.

I drew up a Fib against the peaks of Point A and B. Should price break out of this triangle, we can expect to see the break out happen between the 38.2 and 23.6 levels. As such a safe long entry would be at 1.286 with potential take profit set to 1.29342. The move is likely to go up to 1.29693.

Once we are in this region, we can expect the Euro to drop dramatically, down to 1.2523 region. What will determine this drop will most likely be based on the amount of time it would take for price to move to our projected region of 1.296.

In my previous analysis on the EURUSD, I mentioned that price is likely to reach the 1.26 levels around Thursday/Friday. Based on this input, we can assume that the Euro would go up just a little bit in order to fit into our overall analysis.

Those in the Short should adjust their stops and can look to adding to their short positions around the 1.29 levels.

EURUSD - Sell once the short bull rally is done

This analysis is a continuation of my previous EURUSD trade. As mentioned, we're still a good 2 days away from price to reach our estimated target range. As such, on the 1 hour EURUSD charts, we have a short bull rally being formed.

For those in the trade, you could either choose to get out now, or ride through this short spike.
For those who missed out this trade, entering at the peak of this bull rally would be ideal.

In order to figure this out, just look to stochs for a confirmation on the peaks. Price would be ranging in the zone of 1.288 - 1.284. Look for stochs cutting the signal line pointing downwards in order to enter short again.

Trading Triangles - USDCHF Trade

I just posted a trading method here. Its an old, tried and tested method and I was reminded of it when I was reading the April issue of tradersonline-mag.com.

So I decided to take on a trade for USDCHF (which has been a bitch in the last few days), because this trade really annoyed the hell out of me. I had gone short couple of days back and price was moving in a really tight range. And on top of this I had added to my positions, so you can imagine how difficult it was to see the trade move to positive pips.

Thanks to Stochastics, I would have given up on this trade and taken my losses, but better sense prevailed.

So I decided to whack the hell out of USDCHF. Below is the chart with a Pending SELL order (it will take a few days for the order to be triggered).

Trade Recommendation
Pending SELL Order
Entry: 0.935
Stop Loss: 0.95122
Target: 0.915

Well, I already entered this trade (on a demo account) just to see how it will work out because currently price is about 189 pips away from our entry. Let's see how it goes. I'm expecting to ride the USDCHF once it bottoms out, because from a Wolfe Wave perspective, it would mark the beginning of the trade from Wave 5 (which is where our target price is).

So if I managed to make some pips on both the short and future long entry, I think I would have taken my revenge on Swiss Franc.

AUDCAD - Follow Up

Its been a few days since we entered short on AUDUSD. Analyzing the trade on a lower time frame, we see a minor bullish rally being formed. This is a great opportunity for traders to add to their position as well as for those who missed out on taking this trade previously.

In the chart below we are looking at the H4 time frame which is shaping out to be bullish. I also have the Parabolic SAR plotted to get a sense of price.

AUDCAD - H4 - Bull Rally

So our trading plan will be as follows.

On the H4 chart, wait for Stochasitcs to cut above the 20 region and we go Long (with smaller/conservative lot size). We'll set take profit 1 to daily pivot of 1.0622, and TP2 @ 1.0648 (If you're aiming for TP 2, then make sure to adjust your stops because the daily charts is going for a downtrend).

In the course of this short long trade, we'll look for signs of a bearish stochastics so as to add to our existing position for AUDCAD.

NZDUSD - Bullish Wave (Quick trade)

On the 30 minute chart for NZDUSD we have a bullish wolfe wave formation. Notice that the wolfe wave is completely formed and we are currently riding the wave.

Price is just above the daily pivot giving us a good placement for our stops at 0.83618 a few pips below the daily pivot ot 0.83675.

M30, NZDUSD - Bullish Wolfe Wave

We expect price to rally through to the daily resistance level of 0.8394. We also have a confirmation from Stochastics, which is pointing upwards, indicating a bullish bias.

Due to the fact that we have a long weekend coming up, it wouldn't make sense to get locked up in a trade. Thus our take profit is set to 0.83894.

This should be a quick trade and hopefully the trade should be closed before the end of business today.

The trade entry is at 0.83733. However, there could some retracements so look to go long on pull backs.

Trade Recommendation

Pending BUY Order

BUY @ 0.83769
Stop Loss 0.83618
TP1 : 0.83894
TP2: 0.8394

EURUSD - In trade analysis

Well, the EURUSD trade is shaping out to be really good. Its just amazing when you get the Wolfe waves right that the trades can be so profitable. You can read about the first analysis of this trade here and a follow up analysis here.

So here's an analysis of the EURUSD trade so far.

EURUSD - H1 Chart

There were two trades opened @ Lots each.

Trade 1:
Open Price: 1.29841
Closing Price: 1.29556
Closed: 1 Lot
Pips in Profit: 285

Trade 2:
Open Price: 1.30091
Closing Price: 1.2845
Closed: 1 Lot
Pips in Profit: 526

Moved stop loss for both the trades to 1.29841

On the 4 Hour chart, the Stochastics is just shaping out to be bearish at the 80 line. On the H1 chart, Stochs is already bearish.

EURUSD Price has moved out of the 'Sweet Zone' and is on the way to reaching the target of 1.28.

As of this point, with the open trades, Trade 1 stop loss is +25 Pips and Trade 2 stop loss is at break even.

To reiterate, Wolfe Waves tell us that price will drop to 1.27445 around the 27th of March, 12PM (GMT+2).

We have the daily support level at 1.291. So at this point we will close 0.50 lots for both the trades and move the stop loss to 1.29614 which is the daily pivot.

We will let the remaining two trades at 0.5 lots each to run its course.

EDIT

I have closed 0.40 lots for both the trades. So right now we only have 0.10 lots for each of the two trades. Stops has been moved to 1.29614 with TP at 1.2745. Fingers crossed that tomorrow we'll get there!

AUDCAD - Bearish outlook

It looks like the Aussie dollar is preparing itself for a bearish outlook. The Aussie is set to weaken against most of the currencies including USD, JPY, CAD. In the chart below, we have AUDCAD with a bearish Wolfe wave outlook.

AUDCAD - Bearish Wolfe Wave

Trade Recommendations
Pending SELL Order
SELL at 1.0628
S/L: 1.072
TP: 1.05
Expected Time: 5th April, 2013

Conclusion
Trade Closed @ 1.05853
Net P/L: 42.7 Pips

AUDUSD - Bears taking control?

I got a notification from Netdania about AUDUSD reaching the monthly highs. What I like about this service is that they send out forex price alerts whenever price hits a significant high or low. It was based on this alert, that I went about looking into the AUDUSD.

In the chart below I have the Wolfe waves plotted. When I include the Stochastics, we see that the bulls are still in control.

AUDUSD - Wolfe Wave Charts

In the chart, we see price cutting through the Monthly resistance level 1 at 1.0386. The next resistance level is at 1.0559, which has in the past managed to hold quite strong. Therefore, it is unlikely that the Aussie dollar will manage to breach this level again, given that we have the Wolfe Waves pointing to a bearish outlook.

As such, what's interesting about this trade is the prediction that price is likely to drop to 0.9915 levels around mid May.

I'm including this trade under 'Interesting trade set ups' as this is something significant, considering my last successful analysis on the EURUSD, predicting a price drop in Mach, way back in February.

Conclusion
Trade Closed. Entry @ 1.04569, Closed @ 1.04145
Net P/L: 42.4 Pips

Revisiting the EURUSD Trade

Perhaps the biggest test for any technical analyst can come from the fact that when fundamentals either point to different market direction or when the fundamentals keep you guessing.

This weekend marks one such moment as we have the Cyprus bailout issue which again as with most past issues tend to be resolved at the last minute.

Following up the EURUSD trade, I wanted to revisit this trade set up with an idea to see things are going to play out.

EURUSD - H1 Charts - Bearish Outlook, 23rd March

Firstly, the H1 chart shows a bearish outlook as pointed previously. Price is currently trading near the 'Wave 5' zone and a drop from here should see the EURUSD on the downhill. The Wolfe Wave EPA shows March 25th.

In the chart below, we have the Wolfe Waves with Stochs plotted. Evident, price does look to fall but it isn't a confirmation yet. While the stochs managed to tip just below the 80 region, the main stochs line looks flat at this moment.

EURUSD - H1 Chart - Price Projections & Targets

From a fundamental perspective, it is likely that a resolution to the Cyprus issue could set the Euro a bit stronger, however a failure (which is highly unlikely to happen) could see the Euro plummet.

Wolfe waves tells us that price is likely to reach 1.27 regions. But as mentioned previously the price drop is just too steep. An important point to note in the chart is that price already peaked to the region where Wolfe wave projects, which is 1.301.

In terms of trading the EURUSD, we will look for price to breach 1.2978 and go short. Our stop loss would be set to 1.2995 with Take Profits at 1.2957, 1.29396, 1.29093 and 1.28637, which are key pivot points.

EURUSD - Pivot Points

EURUSD - Bearish Outlook

After my recent post which pointed to a successful bullish wolfe wave being formed, the EURUSD is now all set to ride downhill. In the graph below, i've posted the Stochastic settings as well to confirm the key points of reversal.

What i've also done in this chart is drew a line parallel to the pivots 2 and 4. This is denoted by the blue dashed line. As I mentioned in my previous analysis of EURUSD, drawing a 2 - 4 parallel line shows potential areas where price could continue to rise.

As evident from the chart, price went into the zones between the 1, 3, 5 line and the 2, 4 parallel line that is drawn.

A conservative trade is to wait for EURUSD to drop to 1.2955 and then go short. Potential take profit levels would be 1.289, 1.286. All in all, this Wolfe wave is showing a potential drop to 1.27 region by the 24th of March. However, the drop is quite steep, unless we expect to see a gap in the EURUSD over the weekend. (Think, Cyprus).

However, let's not get carried away. In the chart below, I have plotted a 1, 3, 5 parallel line from pivot point 2. This level will be more ideal. So we are looking at 1.286 where this bearish rally will stop. (Refer to the highlighted area).

NZDUSD - Following up

The bearish bias continues but in the past hour, price has only been seen spiking. I thought I would revisit this trade and also inform readers that the analysis is still good.

I've added stochastics to the charts to get a better idea of price. As you can see, the bearish stoch hasn't been formed yet, which explains the bullish rise in price for NZDUSD in the past hour. At this point, we are quite close to getting a SELL signal from the Stochs so an entry at this point would be idea.

Revised take profit levels would be 0.82724, followed by  0.8235 and finally 0.814 (which will happen around next week).