Wolfe Waves and Rectangles - Updates

So its been a few days and this post serves as an update to how the concept is faring.

CADCHF

A minor adjustment was needed and the latest ETA shows 18th or 19th July as against the earlier ETA's of 17/18th July. Anyways, its only a day more so let's see how things shape up. This pair at the time of writing is trading at 0.9046... our target is 0.89 to be reached by 18th/19th.

Previous update on this pair can be found here.

My view so far... price is likely to reach the target, although personally I expected the target to be reached today on account of BoC press conference and rate statement.

CVX (Chevron)

Based on this experiment, we expect price to trade in the region of $110 - $113 in/around 19th August. Currently, price is still near the tops at $124.93.

Details on the experiment for CVX can be found here.

CVX - Update, 17th July

I did a bit more adjustments to this and came up with some new findings. From the chart above, the key price levels/dates to keep in mind are:

• $115.99 is the price point for WW3 and thus seems like the most likely price level to be hit
• $111.04 is our lowest target for completion of wave 5 and ideally should happen on or before 23rd August
• $130 - $133 is the likely target for the Wolfe Wave, which should be between 23/08 - 13/09
• The updated Wolfe Wave for Chevron also gives us the final price projection of $138 by 21st October 2013

USDCAD 

Forgot to save the damned chart and no patience to go back and construct the Wolfe waves. Details here.

GOOG

Google is going to be a very interesting experiment. In regards to new developments for Google, I notice that price has been pretty much contained within $929.93 and points to a bearish drop. See chart below for details.

GOOG - Wolfe Waves, Updated 17th July

What's of concern is the ETA's don't quite add up.

For one, it seems like a price drop towards 838.98 - 829 by 19th July seems highly unlikely, unless they post some really bad earnings report. On the same note, WW shows us the EPA/ETA to be $807.64 by 25th August. Previous update for this pair is here.

Wolfe Wave - Rectangles - Experiment 2

In this experiment, we'll look at USDCAD Pair.

USDCAD - Wolfe Wave Experiment

From the chart below, it is obvious that price failed to touch the peak of 1.08193. However, we cannot assume that price has started a downward trend. As long as price is still in the rectangle, we have to assume the underlying theme, which is a probable price move towards 1.08193. Our ETA for price to come out of this rectangle is 23rd August.

Our target price is projected at 0.9683 which is expected to reach around 30th of September.

For now, we'll have to wait and watch.

USDCAD - What could possibly be causing this Short?

The daily charts for USDCAD paint an interesting picture from a Wolfe Wave perspective. If going by the current conditions, (a strong Greenback), the USDCAD seems to have run its course with a possible decline (and one that is large) seems to be just around the corner.

I have made a post about this on SeekingAlpha blog. You can find it here.

USDCAD - Bullish Wolfe Wave

Below is the 1 hour USDCAD chart. We see from the pivot points that price is currently at the weekly support level 1 of 1.0190. It seems like this support level is holding up quite well. Also note that price is currently in the 'Sweet Zone'. So we'll wait for price to move up before entering the trade.

USDCAD - Bullish Wolfe Wave

Ideally, we will look at price to reach above today's support level of 1.0211. Price could come back to retest this zone, so on the retracement we'll enter long with take profit 1 set at 1.0237 followed by 1.0276 which marks the weekly resistance level. However, the Wolfe waves are a bit too steep, so we'll take this trade with caution and try to book our profits at key levels.

Ideally we could open 3 standard or mini lots and close 1 lot at each of the three levels. We will also be moving our stops.

Trade Recommendation

Pending BUY Order
BUY at 1.01960
Stop Loss 1.0190
Take Profit 1: 1.0211
Take Profit 2: 1.0237
Take Profit 3: 1.0255
Expected Time: 29th March 2013

Note: If by the expected time price doesn't come closer to the TP levels, then use judgement and close the trade.

Conclusion: Stopped Out
P/L: -6 Pips