Trading Triangles - USDCHF Trade

I just posted a trading method here. Its an old, tried and tested method and I was reminded of it when I was reading the April issue of tradersonline-mag.com.

So I decided to take on a trade for USDCHF (which has been a bitch in the last few days), because this trade really annoyed the hell out of me. I had gone short couple of days back and price was moving in a really tight range. And on top of this I had added to my positions, so you can imagine how difficult it was to see the trade move to positive pips.

Thanks to Stochastics, I would have given up on this trade and taken my losses, but better sense prevailed.

So I decided to whack the hell out of USDCHF. Below is the chart with a Pending SELL order (it will take a few days for the order to be triggered).

Trade Recommendation
Pending SELL Order
Entry: 0.935
Stop Loss: 0.95122
Target: 0.915

Well, I already entered this trade (on a demo account) just to see how it will work out because currently price is about 189 pips away from our entry. Let's see how it goes. I'm expecting to ride the USDCHF once it bottoms out, because from a Wolfe Wave perspective, it would mark the beginning of the trade from Wave 5 (which is where our target price is).

So if I managed to make some pips on both the short and future long entry, I think I would have taken my revenge on Swiss Franc.

AUDCAD - Follow Up

Its been a few days since we entered short on AUDUSD. Analyzing the trade on a lower time frame, we see a minor bullish rally being formed. This is a great opportunity for traders to add to their position as well as for those who missed out on taking this trade previously.

In the chart below we are looking at the H4 time frame which is shaping out to be bullish. I also have the Parabolic SAR plotted to get a sense of price.

AUDCAD - H4 - Bull Rally

So our trading plan will be as follows.

On the H4 chart, wait for Stochasitcs to cut above the 20 region and we go Long (with smaller/conservative lot size). We'll set take profit 1 to daily pivot of 1.0622, and TP2 @ 1.0648 (If you're aiming for TP 2, then make sure to adjust your stops because the daily charts is going for a downtrend).

In the course of this short long trade, we'll look for signs of a bearish stochastics so as to add to our existing position for AUDCAD.

NZDUSD - Bullish Wave (Quick trade)

On the 30 minute chart for NZDUSD we have a bullish wolfe wave formation. Notice that the wolfe wave is completely formed and we are currently riding the wave.

Price is just above the daily pivot giving us a good placement for our stops at 0.83618 a few pips below the daily pivot ot 0.83675.

M30, NZDUSD - Bullish Wolfe Wave

We expect price to rally through to the daily resistance level of 0.8394. We also have a confirmation from Stochastics, which is pointing upwards, indicating a bullish bias.

Due to the fact that we have a long weekend coming up, it wouldn't make sense to get locked up in a trade. Thus our take profit is set to 0.83894.

This should be a quick trade and hopefully the trade should be closed before the end of business today.

The trade entry is at 0.83733. However, there could some retracements so look to go long on pull backs.

Trade Recommendation

Pending BUY Order

BUY @ 0.83769
Stop Loss 0.83618
TP1 : 0.83894
TP2: 0.8394

USDCAD - Bullish Wolfe Wave

Below is the 1 hour USDCAD chart. We see from the pivot points that price is currently at the weekly support level 1 of 1.0190. It seems like this support level is holding up quite well. Also note that price is currently in the 'Sweet Zone'. So we'll wait for price to move up before entering the trade.

USDCAD - Bullish Wolfe Wave

Ideally, we will look at price to reach above today's support level of 1.0211. Price could come back to retest this zone, so on the retracement we'll enter long with take profit 1 set at 1.0237 followed by 1.0276 which marks the weekly resistance level. However, the Wolfe waves are a bit too steep, so we'll take this trade with caution and try to book our profits at key levels.

Ideally we could open 3 standard or mini lots and close 1 lot at each of the three levels. We will also be moving our stops.

Trade Recommendation

Pending BUY Order
BUY at 1.01960
Stop Loss 1.0190
Take Profit 1: 1.0211
Take Profit 2: 1.0237
Take Profit 3: 1.0255
Expected Time: 29th March 2013

Note: If by the expected time price doesn't come closer to the TP levels, then use judgement and close the trade.

Conclusion: Stopped Out
P/L: -6 Pips

AUDCAD - Bearish outlook

It looks like the Aussie dollar is preparing itself for a bearish outlook. The Aussie is set to weaken against most of the currencies including USD, JPY, CAD. In the chart below, we have AUDCAD with a bearish Wolfe wave outlook.

AUDCAD - Bearish Wolfe Wave

Trade Recommendations
Pending SELL Order
SELL at 1.0628
S/L: 1.072
TP: 1.05
Expected Time: 5th April, 2013

Conclusion
Trade Closed @ 1.05853
Net P/L: 42.7 Pips

EURUSD - Bearish Outlook

After my recent post which pointed to a successful bullish wolfe wave being formed, the EURUSD is now all set to ride downhill. In the graph below, i've posted the Stochastic settings as well to confirm the key points of reversal.

What i've also done in this chart is drew a line parallel to the pivots 2 and 4. This is denoted by the blue dashed line. As I mentioned in my previous analysis of EURUSD, drawing a 2 - 4 parallel line shows potential areas where price could continue to rise.

As evident from the chart, price went into the zones between the 1, 3, 5 line and the 2, 4 parallel line that is drawn.

A conservative trade is to wait for EURUSD to drop to 1.2955 and then go short. Potential take profit levels would be 1.289, 1.286. All in all, this Wolfe wave is showing a potential drop to 1.27 region by the 24th of March. However, the drop is quite steep, unless we expect to see a gap in the EURUSD over the weekend. (Think, Cyprus).

However, let's not get carried away. In the chart below, I have plotted a 1, 3, 5 parallel line from pivot point 2. This level will be more ideal. So we are looking at 1.286 where this bearish rally will stop. (Refer to the highlighted area).