Is Hurst Exponent the answer to false breakouts?


While i'm on the case for Light Crude Oil futures, wolfe wave, I want to touch upon a small discovery. Recently, I stumbled upon Hurst Exponent indicator. While i'll keep the mathematical details and its history away from this article (and you can just search for hurst exponent, should you be interested to learn more), I find this indicator to be quite an interesting addition when trading with Wolfe Waves.

Simply put, the Hurst Exponent is not an oscillator but rather gives probabilities of price action. So when Hurst is above 1.5, it indicators volatile markets, and when its below 1.5 it indicates a trending market.

What's important to note from Hurst indicator is the aspect of 'volatility' or 'choppy markets'

Those trading with Wolfe Waves or converging triangles would know how easy it is to get caught in a false breakout.

Well, fret no more because I think using Hurst can help you steer away from these choppy movements.

Look to the chart below and the vertical lines.

Hurst Exponent - Wolfe Waves
The indicator below is a variation of Hurst exponent, which I modified a bit more to make it more easy on the eye.

We're looking at the 1-hour chart and pay attention to the price action when Hurst was above 1.5, indicating choppy markets. Isn't it interesting to see that Hurst is blue just within our region of the wolfe wave pattern?

Also note how the choppiness ends just when price touches our 'sweet spot' and then moves down (as we expect it to) ????

While its too early.. i'll be playing around more with the Hurst exponent and wolfe waves and see how this indicator helps.

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