We
talked, in a taped telephone interview at his home in Singapore, with
Billionaire Jim Rogers, legendary commodities trader who picked the
bottom of the commodities bull market in 1999. With George Soros, Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund in 1970.
Over the next decade, Quantum Fund grew by more than 3300 percent. Rogers retired, later a guest professor of finance at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business, and later around the world to explore new investment opportunities. Firsthand He is widely and often quoted in the media about his views on the commodities market. Bestselling author, investment biker, adventure capitalist and widely followed, Jim Rogers talks about what he now invest in.
Stock Interview: In an interview with Reuters, about a month ago, you told the reporter that cleaner burning fuels such as natural gas would outperform oil. Do you still believe natural gas will perform well, comparative to the rest of the commodities in this bull market?
Jim Rogers: Oh, yeah. As I said, the bull market is not over-represented. The bull market has years to go, as far as I can see. Speaking in particular of natural gas, on a historical basis, it is much less expensive than crude oil, coal or even, at this stage. It has become crazy down because there is an abundance of natural gas - in the U.S. anyway - and that is one of the major markets for natural gas. In the long term, the production of natural gas decreases in North America.
StockInterview: How coalbed methane fit into this picture?
Jim Rogers: As long as the economic, it is a viable source of energy. You will see people using methane. You see people with many viable alternatives such as the price of energy continues and goes higher and higher.
StockInterview: Speaking of cleaner burning fuels, how do you feel about uranium and nuclear energy? Both uranium and nuclear energy seem to undergo a renaissance.
Jim Rogers: Well, there's a nuclear revival. Nuclear power is cheaper than many other sources of energy, and so is having a comeback, if you will. In many parts of the world, it never went away. The French never stopped using nuclear power. The Koreans never stopped using nuclear power. Other people come to nuclear energy. The Chinese are going to build at least the next fifteen years or so 25 nuclear power plants. Even in the U.S., some environmentalists start re-examine nuclear power because it is cleaner than coal or other carbon-based energy sources. If well managed, then nuclear energy can be very attractive, both cost-wise and environment-wise. The huge stocks of uranium, which were used during the Cold War built up depleted. So, I see a great future for uranium and nuclear power plants.
Stock Interview: Spot uranium prices have risen steadily to nearly six years without a correction. How do you look for uranium as commodities trader?
Jim Rogers: Well, when something goes straight up for six years, without a correction, one should be concerned. Course corrections are normal in the financial markets. Whether there is a correction in the next year or two, I have no idea. More or less, it is after the oil, as you probably know. If and when oil has a major correction, I suspect uranium will. They do not necessarily go together, but to some extent they have and probably will. Until someone brings a lot of new uranium in motion, however, the surprise will be how high the price of uranium stay, and how high it eventually goes. There are no major uranium mines be opened anywhere in the world. Uranium is still cause for concern for some people, so I would suspect it will take over ten years to bring a new one. Huge uranium mine going, anywhere in the world
StockInterview: It's been twenty years since a new uranium deposit was discovered.
Jim Rogers: That's what I say. It takes a long time. Expanding a mine is different from opening a new mine. There is a lead mine opened in the world in 25 years. Some people embark on the production of lead mines and copper mines expand. But this idea of bringing large new mines on the scene is simply nowhere in the world happens in most commodities. One of the reasons is because in the past 25 years, unfortunately, nobody got an engineering degree. Everyone got MBAs in stocks and bonds. So, there is a huge shortage of engineers in the world right now, not only engineers, also laborers to work in the mines. All people have old or retired or died. And not just engineers and workers, you can not get tires for your tractor. You can not get tractors. There is a shortage of everything, because no one is investing in production. You have to have tractors. You have to have tires. You have to have engineers. You have to bring everything to new capacity going have. Although there are shortages of all these things, which is why the bull market last as long. Bull markets historically have lasted 15-23 years. This is also likely.
COPYRIGHT © 2007 by StockInterview, Inc. All rights reserved.
Over the next decade, Quantum Fund grew by more than 3300 percent. Rogers retired, later a guest professor of finance at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business, and later around the world to explore new investment opportunities. Firsthand He is widely and often quoted in the media about his views on the commodities market. Bestselling author, investment biker, adventure capitalist and widely followed, Jim Rogers talks about what he now invest in.
Stock Interview: In an interview with Reuters, about a month ago, you told the reporter that cleaner burning fuels such as natural gas would outperform oil. Do you still believe natural gas will perform well, comparative to the rest of the commodities in this bull market?
Jim Rogers: Oh, yeah. As I said, the bull market is not over-represented. The bull market has years to go, as far as I can see. Speaking in particular of natural gas, on a historical basis, it is much less expensive than crude oil, coal or even, at this stage. It has become crazy down because there is an abundance of natural gas - in the U.S. anyway - and that is one of the major markets for natural gas. In the long term, the production of natural gas decreases in North America.
StockInterview: How coalbed methane fit into this picture?
Jim Rogers: As long as the economic, it is a viable source of energy. You will see people using methane. You see people with many viable alternatives such as the price of energy continues and goes higher and higher.
StockInterview: Speaking of cleaner burning fuels, how do you feel about uranium and nuclear energy? Both uranium and nuclear energy seem to undergo a renaissance.
Jim Rogers: Well, there's a nuclear revival. Nuclear power is cheaper than many other sources of energy, and so is having a comeback, if you will. In many parts of the world, it never went away. The French never stopped using nuclear power. The Koreans never stopped using nuclear power. Other people come to nuclear energy. The Chinese are going to build at least the next fifteen years or so 25 nuclear power plants. Even in the U.S., some environmentalists start re-examine nuclear power because it is cleaner than coal or other carbon-based energy sources. If well managed, then nuclear energy can be very attractive, both cost-wise and environment-wise. The huge stocks of uranium, which were used during the Cold War built up depleted. So, I see a great future for uranium and nuclear power plants.
Stock Interview: Spot uranium prices have risen steadily to nearly six years without a correction. How do you look for uranium as commodities trader?
Jim Rogers: Well, when something goes straight up for six years, without a correction, one should be concerned. Course corrections are normal in the financial markets. Whether there is a correction in the next year or two, I have no idea. More or less, it is after the oil, as you probably know. If and when oil has a major correction, I suspect uranium will. They do not necessarily go together, but to some extent they have and probably will. Until someone brings a lot of new uranium in motion, however, the surprise will be how high the price of uranium stay, and how high it eventually goes. There are no major uranium mines be opened anywhere in the world. Uranium is still cause for concern for some people, so I would suspect it will take over ten years to bring a new one. Huge uranium mine going, anywhere in the world
StockInterview: It's been twenty years since a new uranium deposit was discovered.
Jim Rogers: That's what I say. It takes a long time. Expanding a mine is different from opening a new mine. There is a lead mine opened in the world in 25 years. Some people embark on the production of lead mines and copper mines expand. But this idea of bringing large new mines on the scene is simply nowhere in the world happens in most commodities. One of the reasons is because in the past 25 years, unfortunately, nobody got an engineering degree. Everyone got MBAs in stocks and bonds. So, there is a huge shortage of engineers in the world right now, not only engineers, also laborers to work in the mines. All people have old or retired or died. And not just engineers and workers, you can not get tires for your tractor. You can not get tractors. There is a shortage of everything, because no one is investing in production. You have to have tractors. You have to have tires. You have to have engineers. You have to bring everything to new capacity going have. Although there are shortages of all these things, which is why the bull market last as long. Bull markets historically have lasted 15-23 years. This is also likely.
COPYRIGHT © 2007 by StockInterview, Inc. All rights reserved.
