AUDCAD - Follow Up

Its been a few days since we entered short on AUDUSD. Analyzing the trade on a lower time frame, we see a minor bullish rally being formed. This is a great opportunity for traders to add to their position as well as for those who missed out on taking this trade previously.

In the chart below we are looking at the H4 time frame which is shaping out to be bullish. I also have the Parabolic SAR plotted to get a sense of price.

AUDCAD - H4 - Bull Rally

So our trading plan will be as follows.

On the H4 chart, wait for Stochasitcs to cut above the 20 region and we go Long (with smaller/conservative lot size). We'll set take profit 1 to daily pivot of 1.0622, and TP2 @ 1.0648 (If you're aiming for TP 2, then make sure to adjust your stops because the daily charts is going for a downtrend).

In the course of this short long trade, we'll look for signs of a bearish stochastics so as to add to our existing position for AUDCAD.

EURUSD - In trade analysis

Well, the EURUSD trade is shaping out to be really good. Its just amazing when you get the Wolfe waves right that the trades can be so profitable. You can read about the first analysis of this trade here and a follow up analysis here.

So here's an analysis of the EURUSD trade so far.

EURUSD - H1 Chart

There were two trades opened @ Lots each.

Trade 1:
Open Price: 1.29841
Closing Price: 1.29556
Closed: 1 Lot
Pips in Profit: 285

Trade 2:
Open Price: 1.30091
Closing Price: 1.2845
Closed: 1 Lot
Pips in Profit: 526

Moved stop loss for both the trades to 1.29841

On the 4 Hour chart, the Stochastics is just shaping out to be bearish at the 80 line. On the H1 chart, Stochs is already bearish.

EURUSD Price has moved out of the 'Sweet Zone' and is on the way to reaching the target of 1.28.

As of this point, with the open trades, Trade 1 stop loss is +25 Pips and Trade 2 stop loss is at break even.

To reiterate, Wolfe Waves tell us that price will drop to 1.27445 around the 27th of March, 12PM (GMT+2).

We have the daily support level at 1.291. So at this point we will close 0.50 lots for both the trades and move the stop loss to 1.29614 which is the daily pivot.

We will let the remaining two trades at 0.5 lots each to run its course.

EDIT

I have closed 0.40 lots for both the trades. So right now we only have 0.10 lots for each of the two trades. Stops has been moved to 1.29614 with TP at 1.2745. Fingers crossed that tomorrow we'll get there!

Revisiting the EURUSD Trade

Perhaps the biggest test for any technical analyst can come from the fact that when fundamentals either point to different market direction or when the fundamentals keep you guessing.

This weekend marks one such moment as we have the Cyprus bailout issue which again as with most past issues tend to be resolved at the last minute.

Following up the EURUSD trade, I wanted to revisit this trade set up with an idea to see things are going to play out.

EURUSD - H1 Charts - Bearish Outlook, 23rd March

Firstly, the H1 chart shows a bearish outlook as pointed previously. Price is currently trading near the 'Wave 5' zone and a drop from here should see the EURUSD on the downhill. The Wolfe Wave EPA shows March 25th.

In the chart below, we have the Wolfe Waves with Stochs plotted. Evident, price does look to fall but it isn't a confirmation yet. While the stochs managed to tip just below the 80 region, the main stochs line looks flat at this moment.

EURUSD - H1 Chart - Price Projections & Targets

From a fundamental perspective, it is likely that a resolution to the Cyprus issue could set the Euro a bit stronger, however a failure (which is highly unlikely to happen) could see the Euro plummet.

Wolfe waves tells us that price is likely to reach 1.27 regions. But as mentioned previously the price drop is just too steep. An important point to note in the chart is that price already peaked to the region where Wolfe wave projects, which is 1.301.

In terms of trading the EURUSD, we will look for price to breach 1.2978 and go short. Our stop loss would be set to 1.2995 with Take Profits at 1.2957, 1.29396, 1.29093 and 1.28637, which are key pivot points.

EURUSD - Pivot Points

NZDUSD - Following up

The bearish bias continues but in the past hour, price has only been seen spiking. I thought I would revisit this trade and also inform readers that the analysis is still good.

I've added stochastics to the charts to get a better idea of price. As you can see, the bearish stoch hasn't been formed yet, which explains the bullish rise in price for NZDUSD in the past hour. At this point, we are quite close to getting a SELL signal from the Stochs so an entry at this point would be idea.

Revised take profit levels would be 0.82724, followed by  0.8235 and finally 0.814 (which will happen around next week).

EURUSD Bullish Wave continues

So after close to 12 hours later, the EURUSD price continues to be bullish despite the negative market sentiment on account of the deadlock on the Cyprus bailout issue.

However, the price target of 1.30 seems quite doubtful given the fundamentals at play. It will be interesting to see how this trade will unfold and at what price level we can expect the pair to become bearish.

Below is the EURUSD chart.. continuation from yesterday's post. As you can see, price has moved quite a distance from yesterday's entry price.

In terms of the daily resistance levels, the pair has clearly breached R1 at 1.29426. R2 is at 1.30192 and R3 at 1.30689.

USDCHF - Trade Analysis, 01/03

0.94233 is proving to be a hard zone for the pair to breach. The first attempt failed and now the pair is going for a second try. I think it will take a few more kisses before this level can be breached. Placing pending LONG orders couple of pips above this level or waiting for a new candle to open comfortably above this level (a conservative approach) could enable those to get back into this trade.

The target price we're looking at 0.94694 through 0.94861.

GBPCHF H4 Chart, In Trade Analysis

The GBPCHF pair is also currently in a retracement mode. I've closed my trade and managed to get just 8 pips out of it. I'm to be blamed because I was too busy writing up stuff. Anyways, all is not lost. The GBPCHF Daily chart looks to be getting more and more bullish. The 4- hour chart is holding on and we are currently seeing a bearish retracement on the 1-hour chart.

Price could likely move to the 50% Fib for the retracement to end. However, i'll be looking keenly at the Schaff Trend Cycle in order to base my judgement. For those who missed this trade, TODAY is a great opportunity to enter LONG on the GBPCHF. Just wait for this retracement to end and once the STC turns bullish, we're off on our journey.