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| AUDCAD - Bearish Wolfe Wave |
Trade Recommendations
Pending SELL Order
SELL at 1.0628
S/L: 1.072
TP: 1.05
Expected Time: 5th April, 2013
Conclusion
Trade Closed @ 1.05853
Net P/L: 42.7 Pips
Showing posts with label trade set ups. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade set ups. Show all posts
AUDCAD - Bearish outlook
It looks like the Aussie dollar is preparing itself for a bearish outlook. The Aussie is set to weaken against most of the currencies including USD, JPY, CAD.
In the chart below, we have AUDCAD with a bearish Wolfe wave outlook.
Trade Recommendations
Pending SELL Order
SELL at 1.0628
S/L: 1.072
TP: 1.05
Expected Time: 5th April, 2013
Conclusion
Trade Closed @ 1.05853
Net P/L: 42.7 Pips
Trade Recommendations
Pending SELL Order
SELL at 1.0628
S/L: 1.072
TP: 1.05
Expected Time: 5th April, 2013
Conclusion
Trade Closed @ 1.05853
Net P/L: 42.7 Pips
EURUSD - Bearish Outlook
After my recent post which pointed to a successful bullish wolfe wave being formed, the EURUSD is now all set to ride downhill. In the graph below, i've posted the Stochastic settings as well to confirm the key points of reversal.
What i've also done in this chart is drew a line parallel to the pivots 2 and 4. This is denoted by the blue dashed line. As I mentioned in my previous analysis of EURUSD, drawing a 2 - 4 parallel line shows potential areas where price could continue to rise.
As evident from the chart, price went into the zones between the 1, 3, 5 line and the 2, 4 parallel line that is drawn.
A conservative trade is to wait for EURUSD to drop to 1.2955 and then go short. Potential take profit levels would be 1.289, 1.286. All in all, this Wolfe wave is showing a potential drop to 1.27 region by the 24th of March. However, the drop is quite steep, unless we expect to see a gap in the EURUSD over the weekend. (Think, Cyprus).
However, let's not get carried away. In the chart below, I have plotted a 1, 3, 5 parallel line from pivot point 2. This level will be more ideal. So we are looking at 1.286 where this bearish rally will stop. (Refer to the highlighted area).
AUDUSD - Wolfe Wave Formation
Its been a while since I posted a new trade. Here we see the AUDUSD 4 hour chart and the formation of a Wolfe wave. Its still in the early stages so there is a good wave to ride.
I have placed a sell order at 1.03060 with take profit at 1.02034 and stop loss at 1.03335 (the point of wave 5). All in all, this trade looks to be quite interesting, given that the potential profit to be made is 1026 pips with risk at 275 pips.
I'm expecting this trade to close around the 17th of March.
Wolfe Wave Trade Set ups - 3rd March
GBPCHF - H4 Chart, Potential LONG
The 4 hour GBPCHF chart has a wolfe wave already formed. A confirmation can be taken from the sharp change in Schaff Trend Cycle, at Wave 5. However, the Fibonacci Level of 76.4% or 1.42104 was tested and proved to be a strong resistance. A breach of this level will see price heading to 1.42925.
An ideal trade set up would be to wait for a breach of the 76.4% level, preferably a candle opening above this level with stop placed at 1.40926 and take profit at 1.42925.
In terms of risk to reward, this is a risky trade, but the price is likely to be hit. With a bit of caution and monitoring the chart in real time could help in placing a more conservative stop loss.
On the H1 chart, we see another target being formed at 1.42016. A breach above this level should give us the confirmation to go long. Also bear in mind that the Shcaff Trend Cycles for both H1 and H4 are still bearish, so we will wait until the cycle turns bullish.
CHFJPY - Daily Chart, Potential SHORT
The daily chart shows us a wolfe wave being formed along with the Schaff trend cycle confirming a reversal. The potential target for this trade could well be the 91.498, along with the possibility of price further heading down to 89.632.
If we check on shorter time frames, we notice the H1, H4 still showing a bullish bias on the Schaff Trend cycle. Waiting for a bearish turn of the cycle will provide an ideal entry point, which is likely to be between 50% and 38.2% regions.
A stop loss at 101.859 looks safe.
The 4 hour GBPCHF chart has a wolfe wave already formed. A confirmation can be taken from the sharp change in Schaff Trend Cycle, at Wave 5. However, the Fibonacci Level of 76.4% or 1.42104 was tested and proved to be a strong resistance. A breach of this level will see price heading to 1.42925.
An ideal trade set up would be to wait for a breach of the 76.4% level, preferably a candle opening above this level with stop placed at 1.40926 and take profit at 1.42925.
In terms of risk to reward, this is a risky trade, but the price is likely to be hit. With a bit of caution and monitoring the chart in real time could help in placing a more conservative stop loss.
CHFJPY - Daily Chart, Potential SHORT
The daily chart shows us a wolfe wave being formed along with the Schaff trend cycle confirming a reversal. The potential target for this trade could well be the 91.498, along with the possibility of price further heading down to 89.632.
If we check on shorter time frames, we notice the H1, H4 still showing a bullish bias on the Schaff Trend cycle. Waiting for a bearish turn of the cycle will provide an ideal entry point, which is likely to be between 50% and 38.2% regions.
A stop loss at 101.859 looks safe.
Potential Trade Set ups 01/03
There are three really nice trades getting ready. If you have been following my previous posts, you might have guessed that USDCHF, GBPCHF and EURUSD are the three pairs in question.
Let me quickly run you through the set ups.
USDCHF - Bias is Bullish
Currently going through a retracement on the H1 chart. H4 Chart looks steadily bullish. Same with the Daily chart.
It is likely that price could touch 0.93426 or go lower to 0.93283 before going bullish again.
Placing LONG pending orders at both these levels is a decent entry. In terms of position size, let the first level be smaller lot while the second entry be a 1 Lot set up. Either ways, use caution. Stop loss should be 0.92789, yesterday's low.
GBPCHF - Bias is Bullish
Currently going through a retracement on the H1 chart. Price is expected to fall through to 1.41547 or in that region. Our target price is 1.42887.
Place LONG orders at or around the 1.41547 region. A definite confirmation would be 1.423 level.
EURUSD - Bias is Bearish
We expect EURUSD to drop to 1.29 region sometime mid March. Price is currently at 1.307 region. H4 shows a bullish Schaff Trend. So we must wait for the STC to turn bearish. H1 is also bullish, just crossing the 90 region on the STC.
Once H1 and H4 turn bearish, we are good to go.
Potential price entry would be 1.31161 or 1.3018. Our target price would be 1.33169. Its a bit too wide, but use judgement and place your stop accordingly. Yesterday's high was 1.31631, so this can be used a stop level as well.
More to follow towards the end of the day.
Let me quickly run you through the set ups.
USDCHF - Bias is Bullish
Currently going through a retracement on the H1 chart. H4 Chart looks steadily bullish. Same with the Daily chart.
It is likely that price could touch 0.93426 or go lower to 0.93283 before going bullish again.
Placing LONG pending orders at both these levels is a decent entry. In terms of position size, let the first level be smaller lot while the second entry be a 1 Lot set up. Either ways, use caution. Stop loss should be 0.92789, yesterday's low.
GBPCHF - Bias is Bullish
Currently going through a retracement on the H1 chart. Price is expected to fall through to 1.41547 or in that region. Our target price is 1.42887.
Place LONG orders at or around the 1.41547 region. A definite confirmation would be 1.423 level.
EURUSD - Bias is Bearish
We expect EURUSD to drop to 1.29 region sometime mid March. Price is currently at 1.307 region. H4 shows a bullish Schaff Trend. So we must wait for the STC to turn bearish. H1 is also bullish, just crossing the 90 region on the STC.
Once H1 and H4 turn bearish, we are good to go.
Potential price entry would be 1.31161 or 1.3018. Our target price would be 1.33169. Its a bit too wide, but use judgement and place your stop accordingly. Yesterday's high was 1.31631, so this can be used a stop level as well.
If you want to grab a cup of coffee or do some errands, now is the right time. Expect some action towards the mid London trading session and definitely during the US trading session.
More to follow towards the end of the day.
Fine tuning a trade - Wolfe Wave Trading system
I wrote an article on the Wolfe Wave Trading system.
I mentioned that looking to the H4 chart is important in order to enter a trade that you might have missed. Below is the EURUSD chart which is a great example.
The EURUSD Daily chart. The Wolfe Wave set up shows a bearish pattern with price likely to fall.
The black arrows shows where the actual reversal happened. But for those who have missed, there is another point of entry. If you thought it would be great to ride this wave, then wait!! Look at the EURUSD chart on the 4 hour time frame.
We see another Wolfe Wave pattern that is formed. And this one looks bullish. The EPA on this chart shows a potential rise to 1.35424. So if you entered short blindly on the Daily chart, you would have got yourself in a messy situation.
The best entry under this circumstances would be to wait for a bearish bias to happen on the Schaff Trend cycle. Wolfe waves are not accurate all the time, and thus, it is possible that the Wolfe wave will fail on the H4 chart. But let's not 'assume' that to happen. The Schaff Trend cycle tells us that price tried to be bullish, but failed. (Look at the failed bullish cycle).
To be safe, we will place our entry on the EURUSD ONLY after the H4 Schaff Trend goes bearish.
EURCHF, H4 Wolfe Wave Set up
It looks like the CHF pairs are doing quite good in terms of Wolfe Wave patterns. Here is a 4-Hour chart on the EURCHF, which shows a nice uptrending move. So we go for a BUY order.
Entry: I'm sure you have missed the 23.6% Fib level entry @ 1.21968. But fret not, wait for the 38.2% entry @ 1.22678
TP: 1.23251
SL: Either 1.22436 or to be more safe (but more wide), 1.21968
TP: 1.23251
SL: Either 1.22436 or to be more safe (but more wide), 1.21968
GBPCHF - H4 Chart, 28th Feb
Another potentially good trade is shaping up on the GBPCHF 4 hour chart. Below is the chart with Wolfe Wave, Schaff Trend and also Fibs. I use Fibs mostly to get a perspective of price especially when Wolfe Waves project prices into the future.
What gives me confirmation is from the daily chart, which is showing a potential end of a downtrend for this pair. Refer to the chart below to see what I mean.
Long @ 1.41842
TP: 1.43620 (61.8% Fib)
SL: 1.40926
Risk: 916 Pips
Reward: 1778 Pips
Reason for getting into this trade again is the positive swaps. Call me crazy but I don't like giving away money for free to the markets.. or my broker for that matter!
TP: 1.43620 (61.8% Fib)
SL: 1.40926
Risk: 916 Pips
Reward: 1778 Pips
Reason for getting into this trade again is the positive swaps. Call me crazy but I don't like giving away money for free to the markets.. or my broker for that matter!
USDCHF - Daily Chart, Wolfe Wave Analysis
Entry @ 0.9330
TP: 0.94861 (coincides with 50% Fibo Level)
S/L: 0.92775
Risk: 525 Pips
Reward: 1561
ETA: March 8th 2013.
Edit: What's also good about keeping this trade open until March 8th? Well, positive Swaps ;)
Just wanted to post another chart. Well the same chart as above but with Schaff Trend Cycle indicator added as well. If you notice, look how nicely price reversed just as Schaff Trend switched from a SELL to a BUY signal. I'm using this as a second confirmation signal for my trade. But as you know, markets are unpredictable. So fingers crossed!!
Trade Set ups - Feb 25th
Weekly trade set ups for the week starting Feb 25th, 2012
Trade #: 2502AUDNZD
AUDNZD - 30 M, LONG
Entry: 1.23047
Exit: 1.23645 (598)
S/L: 1.22875 (77)
Time: 25th Feb 11:30
Notes: We see a perfect Wolfe Wave being formed, along with the contrary wave formation. However, price within the contrary wave hasn't yet been reached. Once this is confirmed, taking up entry at 1.23047 is ideal. Watch for any breach of the TL 1, 3, 5 from the main Wolfe Wave. Wait for reversal and then go long. Over all, i'm quite convinced on this trade set up.
Trade #: 2502AUDUSD
AUDUSD - 15 M, LONG
Entry: 1.03033
Exit: 1.04131 (1098)
S/L: 1.02738 (1393)
Time: 25th Feb 12:00
Notes: The AUDUSD 15 minute chart shows an incomplete Wolfe Wave, especially in the inner contrary wave. We expect price to fall to the main TL 1, 3, 5 at 1.03032. A possible piercing of the main TL 1, 3, 5 should be expected before price reverses.
Trade #: 2502EURJPY-1
EURJPY- 30 M, SHORT
EURJPY - SHORT
Entry: 123.338
Exit: 122.943
S/L: 123.591
Time: 25th Feb 03:30
Notes: There are two potential trades to be taken from the EURJPY chart. The first trade will be a short, as pivot 5 hasn't been formed yet. However, TL 1,3 shows the expected price when Pivot 5 is formed. Therefore, we go short at 122.945 and set our stop on the EPA line which is 123.444. We'll set our take profit at 123.44. This is better depicted in the next chart below.
Trade #: 2502EURJPY-2
EURJPY- 30 M, LONG
Entry: 122.528
Exit: 123.849
S/L: 122.209
Time: 25th Feb 08:30
Notes: This trade is still premature and built upon speculated price points. Therefore, trading this blindly could lead to a losing trade. On the otherhand, there is a possibility to book profits both on a bearish and a bullish bias.
On the longer term Wolfe Wave, we expect price to fall to the TL 1, 3 (5 hasn't been formed yet). Pivot 5 will be formed when the contrary wave is completed (and this will be our first trade, mentioned above).
Once pivot 5 is established, wait for price reversal to go long.
Footnotes
Because this is my very first analysis of Wolfe Waves, I will keep it simple, restricting my analysis to the 3 pairs, 4 trades. I will revisit these trades at or around the ETA for the trades to see how good or bad we have done.
Trade #: 2502AUDNZD
AUDNZD - 30 M, LONG
Entry: 1.23047
Exit: 1.23645 (598)
S/L: 1.22875 (77)
Time: 25th Feb 11:30
Notes: We see a perfect Wolfe Wave being formed, along with the contrary wave formation. However, price within the contrary wave hasn't yet been reached. Once this is confirmed, taking up entry at 1.23047 is ideal. Watch for any breach of the TL 1, 3, 5 from the main Wolfe Wave. Wait for reversal and then go long. Over all, i'm quite convinced on this trade set up.
Trade #: 2502AUDUSD
AUDUSD - 15 M, LONG
Entry: 1.03033
Exit: 1.04131 (1098)
S/L: 1.02738 (1393)
Time: 25th Feb 12:00
Notes: The AUDUSD 15 minute chart shows an incomplete Wolfe Wave, especially in the inner contrary wave. We expect price to fall to the main TL 1, 3, 5 at 1.03032. A possible piercing of the main TL 1, 3, 5 should be expected before price reverses.
Trade #: 2502EURJPY-1
EURJPY- 30 M, SHORT
EURJPY - SHORT
Entry: 123.338
Exit: 122.943
S/L: 123.591
Time: 25th Feb 03:30
Notes: There are two potential trades to be taken from the EURJPY chart. The first trade will be a short, as pivot 5 hasn't been formed yet. However, TL 1,3 shows the expected price when Pivot 5 is formed. Therefore, we go short at 122.945 and set our stop on the EPA line which is 123.444. We'll set our take profit at 123.44. This is better depicted in the next chart below.
Trade #: 2502EURJPY-2
EURJPY- 30 M, LONG
Entry: 122.528
Exit: 123.849
S/L: 122.209
Time: 25th Feb 08:30
Notes: This trade is still premature and built upon speculated price points. Therefore, trading this blindly could lead to a losing trade. On the otherhand, there is a possibility to book profits both on a bearish and a bullish bias.
On the longer term Wolfe Wave, we expect price to fall to the TL 1, 3 (5 hasn't been formed yet). Pivot 5 will be formed when the contrary wave is completed (and this will be our first trade, mentioned above).
Once pivot 5 is established, wait for price reversal to go long.
Footnotes
Because this is my very first analysis of Wolfe Waves, I will keep it simple, restricting my analysis to the 3 pairs, 4 trades. I will revisit these trades at or around the ETA for the trades to see how good or bad we have done.
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