Wolfe Waves and Rectangles - Updates

So its been a few days and this post serves as an update to how the concept is faring.

CADCHF

A minor adjustment was needed and the latest ETA shows 18th or 19th July as against the earlier ETA's of 17/18th July. Anyways, its only a day more so let's see how things shape up. This pair at the time of writing is trading at 0.9046... our target is 0.89 to be reached by 18th/19th.

Previous update on this pair can be found here.

My view so far... price is likely to reach the target, although personally I expected the target to be reached today on account of BoC press conference and rate statement.

CVX (Chevron)

Based on this experiment, we expect price to trade in the region of $110 - $113 in/around 19th August. Currently, price is still near the tops at $124.93.

Details on the experiment for CVX can be found here.

CVX - Update, 17th July

I did a bit more adjustments to this and came up with some new findings. From the chart above, the key price levels/dates to keep in mind are:

• $115.99 is the price point for WW3 and thus seems like the most likely price level to be hit
• $111.04 is our lowest target for completion of wave 5 and ideally should happen on or before 23rd August
• $130 - $133 is the likely target for the Wolfe Wave, which should be between 23/08 - 13/09
• The updated Wolfe Wave for Chevron also gives us the final price projection of $138 by 21st October 2013

USDCAD 

Forgot to save the damned chart and no patience to go back and construct the Wolfe waves. Details here.

GOOG

Google is going to be a very interesting experiment. In regards to new developments for Google, I notice that price has been pretty much contained within $929.93 and points to a bearish drop. See chart below for details.

GOOG - Wolfe Waves, Updated 17th July

What's of concern is the ETA's don't quite add up.

For one, it seems like a price drop towards 838.98 - 829 by 19th July seems highly unlikely, unless they post some really bad earnings report. On the same note, WW shows us the EPA/ETA to be $807.64 by 25th August. Previous update for this pair is here.

Wolfe Wave - Rectangles - Experiment 3

Here's an ongoing experiment for CVX (Chevron) shares. I've been monitoring this stock for quite a while. The chart below shows a complete analysis of CVX and likely price projections.

CVX - Wolfe Waves

At the moment, we are at Point 4. Traditionally its considered risky to trade this wave and such apply caution.

What we're looking at is for price/time. From the rectangles, we expect the lowest price to be $110.26 and the price should move out of this zone by 19th August, 2013.

I've made use of Fibs to divide this rectangle. The 23.6% and 38.2% levels can be ignored because they form well inside the triangle. The key levels to monitor would be $117.45, $115.75 and $113.02.

Traders could either go short with the above target levels or go long from the above 3 price points.

On the upside, riding the Wolfe Wave, gives us a projection price levels of $129.12, $129.76, $131.01 all of which should happen before 3rd September 2013.

Once again.. fingers crossed and let's see how this plays out.

Playing Chevron with Wolfe Waves

Its very rare when a trader would actually get the real meaning of the market prices. In this post, which is purely experimental, I want to put Wolfe Wave to the test with Chevron.

CVX - Wolfe Waves

Currently, prices show a Wolfe Wave triangle in formation with points 1, 2, 3 being formed. Conventional wisdom says not to trade Wolfe Waves before Wave 4 is formed and we stick to that. But by going ahead with our projections, it would be nice to see how price is going to play out.

Key points

• Expecting a reversal at 124.18, around July 12th.
• Look to EMA's for possible clues on price reversals
• Expect the sell off to push price to $111.86 - $109.98
• A bullish move likely from the above regions possibly shooting above $127.42
• This bullish reversal's price point is likely to be $133, with ETA around 17th September

And here's the analysis playing out....