Trading Triangles - USDCHF Trade

I just posted a trading method here. Its an old, tried and tested method and I was reminded of it when I was reading the April issue of tradersonline-mag.com.

So I decided to take on a trade for USDCHF (which has been a bitch in the last few days), because this trade really annoyed the hell out of me. I had gone short couple of days back and price was moving in a really tight range. And on top of this I had added to my positions, so you can imagine how difficult it was to see the trade move to positive pips.

Thanks to Stochastics, I would have given up on this trade and taken my losses, but better sense prevailed.

So I decided to whack the hell out of USDCHF. Below is the chart with a Pending SELL order (it will take a few days for the order to be triggered).

Trade Recommendation
Pending SELL Order
Entry: 0.935
Stop Loss: 0.95122
Target: 0.915

Well, I already entered this trade (on a demo account) just to see how it will work out because currently price is about 189 pips away from our entry. Let's see how it goes. I'm expecting to ride the USDCHF once it bottoms out, because from a Wolfe Wave perspective, it would mark the beginning of the trade from Wave 5 (which is where our target price is).

So if I managed to make some pips on both the short and future long entry, I think I would have taken my revenge on Swiss Franc.

Binary Options Trade - Week of 25 - 28 March

Its been a great week and below is the summary of the binary options trade made. All the trades were entered based on the trading system from MT4 platform (Wolfe Waves) which gives a good indication of price and time, which is essential when setting the expiry times for the trades.

Binary Options Trade Summary 25 - 28th March 2013

Binary Options Trade Summary: 23 - 28th March 2013

Gross Profit: $1920
Gross Loss: $300

Net P/L: $1620

AUDCAD - NZDUSD Stopped out

Both the trades got stopped out. It seems like in an effort to ride the counter-trend and putting a very tight stop loss, AUDCAD bombed. NZDUSD on the other hand was due to incomplete Wolfe waves being formed which got stopped out again.

We had 12.8 pips lost from AUDCAD and 15.1 pips lost from NZDUSD.

On the other hand, we're just 30 minutes away from our binary option expiries which look to be comfortably ending "in the money" with some good profits.

I will update on this shortly and tomorrow will summarize the trades taken during this week.

Also, i'd like to mention that all open orders were closed as we have a long weekend coming up and it would only add to more swaps eating into the profits.

AUDCAD - Follow Up

Its been a few days since we entered short on AUDUSD. Analyzing the trade on a lower time frame, we see a minor bullish rally being formed. This is a great opportunity for traders to add to their position as well as for those who missed out on taking this trade previously.

In the chart below we are looking at the H4 time frame which is shaping out to be bullish. I also have the Parabolic SAR plotted to get a sense of price.

AUDCAD - H4 - Bull Rally

So our trading plan will be as follows.

On the H4 chart, wait for Stochasitcs to cut above the 20 region and we go Long (with smaller/conservative lot size). We'll set take profit 1 to daily pivot of 1.0622, and TP2 @ 1.0648 (If you're aiming for TP 2, then make sure to adjust your stops because the daily charts is going for a downtrend).

In the course of this short long trade, we'll look for signs of a bearish stochastics so as to add to our existing position for AUDCAD.

NZDUSD - Bullish Wave (Quick trade)

On the 30 minute chart for NZDUSD we have a bullish wolfe wave formation. Notice that the wolfe wave is completely formed and we are currently riding the wave.

Price is just above the daily pivot giving us a good placement for our stops at 0.83618 a few pips below the daily pivot ot 0.83675.

M30, NZDUSD - Bullish Wolfe Wave

We expect price to rally through to the daily resistance level of 0.8394. We also have a confirmation from Stochastics, which is pointing upwards, indicating a bullish bias.

Due to the fact that we have a long weekend coming up, it wouldn't make sense to get locked up in a trade. Thus our take profit is set to 0.83894.

This should be a quick trade and hopefully the trade should be closed before the end of business today.

The trade entry is at 0.83733. However, there could some retracements so look to go long on pull backs.

Trade Recommendation

Pending BUY Order

BUY @ 0.83769
Stop Loss 0.83618
TP1 : 0.83894
TP2: 0.8394

EURUSD Touches 1.27 levels as expected (+139 Pips)

So once again, Wolfe Waves managed to successfully predict price and time. We currently have the Euro trading at 1.277. A finer adjusment to the EURUSD chart shows a further drop to 1.26 region.

Actual trade entry was at 1.2955. But managed to add to the trade when price went to 1.30091.

Even at 1.278, the total profits made would be 175 Pips and 139 Pips. Below is the revised EURUSD chart with potential price drop to 1.268.

You can read this trade analysis from the beginning here, and the follow up analysis here.

USDCAD - Trade Analysis (-60 Pips)

The USDCAD trade got stopped out. On closer look we see that the wave 5 formed only recently. However, the Stochastics show a bearish outlook on the daily chart whereas the 4 hour chart shows a bullish formation. Due to the conflicting analysis, we'll leave the USDCAD alone for now.

Update on EURUSD

The EURUSD trade was closed with some pips in profit. The reasoning being that for most of  yesterday the pair was trading in a tight range and because the trade was opened for a couple of days, the rollover swaps was eating into the trade. Thus the EURUSD was closed with some great profits made. What's left of this trade is to sit out and watch if price will touch the 1.27 level today.

The open trades are the AUDUSD and AUDCAD.

There won't be anymore trades being done as the week is going to be short. So take it easy and prepare for a long nice weekend ahead.

EURUSD - In trade analysis

Well, the EURUSD trade is shaping out to be really good. Its just amazing when you get the Wolfe waves right that the trades can be so profitable. You can read about the first analysis of this trade here and a follow up analysis here.

So here's an analysis of the EURUSD trade so far.

EURUSD - H1 Chart

There were two trades opened @ Lots each.

Trade 1:
Open Price: 1.29841
Closing Price: 1.29556
Closed: 1 Lot
Pips in Profit: 285

Trade 2:
Open Price: 1.30091
Closing Price: 1.2845
Closed: 1 Lot
Pips in Profit: 526

Moved stop loss for both the trades to 1.29841

On the 4 Hour chart, the Stochastics is just shaping out to be bearish at the 80 line. On the H1 chart, Stochs is already bearish.

EURUSD Price has moved out of the 'Sweet Zone' and is on the way to reaching the target of 1.28.

As of this point, with the open trades, Trade 1 stop loss is +25 Pips and Trade 2 stop loss is at break even.

To reiterate, Wolfe Waves tell us that price will drop to 1.27445 around the 27th of March, 12PM (GMT+2).

We have the daily support level at 1.291. So at this point we will close 0.50 lots for both the trades and move the stop loss to 1.29614 which is the daily pivot.

We will let the remaining two trades at 0.5 lots each to run its course.

EDIT

I have closed 0.40 lots for both the trades. So right now we only have 0.10 lots for each of the two trades. Stops has been moved to 1.29614 with TP at 1.2745. Fingers crossed that tomorrow we'll get there!

USDCAD - Bullish Wolfe Wave

Below is the 1 hour USDCAD chart. We see from the pivot points that price is currently at the weekly support level 1 of 1.0190. It seems like this support level is holding up quite well. Also note that price is currently in the 'Sweet Zone'. So we'll wait for price to move up before entering the trade.

USDCAD - Bullish Wolfe Wave

Ideally, we will look at price to reach above today's support level of 1.0211. Price could come back to retest this zone, so on the retracement we'll enter long with take profit 1 set at 1.0237 followed by 1.0276 which marks the weekly resistance level. However, the Wolfe waves are a bit too steep, so we'll take this trade with caution and try to book our profits at key levels.

Ideally we could open 3 standard or mini lots and close 1 lot at each of the three levels. We will also be moving our stops.

Trade Recommendation

Pending BUY Order
BUY at 1.01960
Stop Loss 1.0190
Take Profit 1: 1.0211
Take Profit 2: 1.0237
Take Profit 3: 1.0255
Expected Time: 29th March 2013

Note: If by the expected time price doesn't come closer to the TP levels, then use judgement and close the trade.

Conclusion: Stopped Out
P/L: -6 Pips

AUDCAD - Bearish outlook

It looks like the Aussie dollar is preparing itself for a bearish outlook. The Aussie is set to weaken against most of the currencies including USD, JPY, CAD. In the chart below, we have AUDCAD with a bearish Wolfe wave outlook.

AUDCAD - Bearish Wolfe Wave

Trade Recommendations
Pending SELL Order
SELL at 1.0628
S/L: 1.072
TP: 1.05
Expected Time: 5th April, 2013

Conclusion
Trade Closed @ 1.05853
Net P/L: 42.7 Pips

Binary Options Trading - Trade Analysis

Last Friday I placed some binary options trades. Namely on Silver, EURUSD and NZDUSD. All in all, the trades were profitable. Below is the trade history from 24Option.com where I trade. Silver and EURUSD were profitable while NZDUSD gave back the invested amount because the strike price was same as market price at expiry.

None the less, there were no losing trades. Total combined invested amount was $250 and total profits made was $105.

Currently there are two binary options trading running. EURUSD with an expiry time at 28th March and AUDUSD with end of day expiry. Click here to read more about these trades.

AUDUSD - Bears taking control?

I got a notification from Netdania about AUDUSD reaching the monthly highs. What I like about this service is that they send out forex price alerts whenever price hits a significant high or low. It was based on this alert, that I went about looking into the AUDUSD.

In the chart below I have the Wolfe waves plotted. When I include the Stochastics, we see that the bulls are still in control.

AUDUSD - Wolfe Wave Charts

In the chart, we see price cutting through the Monthly resistance level 1 at 1.0386. The next resistance level is at 1.0559, which has in the past managed to hold quite strong. Therefore, it is unlikely that the Aussie dollar will manage to breach this level again, given that we have the Wolfe Waves pointing to a bearish outlook.

As such, what's interesting about this trade is the prediction that price is likely to drop to 0.9915 levels around mid May.

I'm including this trade under 'Interesting trade set ups' as this is something significant, considering my last successful analysis on the EURUSD, predicting a price drop in Mach, way back in February.

Conclusion
Trade Closed. Entry @ 1.04569, Closed @ 1.04145
Net P/L: 42.4 Pips

Revisiting the EURUSD Trade

Perhaps the biggest test for any technical analyst can come from the fact that when fundamentals either point to different market direction or when the fundamentals keep you guessing.

This weekend marks one such moment as we have the Cyprus bailout issue which again as with most past issues tend to be resolved at the last minute.

Following up the EURUSD trade, I wanted to revisit this trade set up with an idea to see things are going to play out.

EURUSD - H1 Charts - Bearish Outlook, 23rd March

Firstly, the H1 chart shows a bearish outlook as pointed previously. Price is currently trading near the 'Wave 5' zone and a drop from here should see the EURUSD on the downhill. The Wolfe Wave EPA shows March 25th.

In the chart below, we have the Wolfe Waves with Stochs plotted. Evident, price does look to fall but it isn't a confirmation yet. While the stochs managed to tip just below the 80 region, the main stochs line looks flat at this moment.

EURUSD - H1 Chart - Price Projections & Targets

From a fundamental perspective, it is likely that a resolution to the Cyprus issue could set the Euro a bit stronger, however a failure (which is highly unlikely to happen) could see the Euro plummet.

Wolfe waves tells us that price is likely to reach 1.27 regions. But as mentioned previously the price drop is just too steep. An important point to note in the chart is that price already peaked to the region where Wolfe wave projects, which is 1.301.

In terms of trading the EURUSD, we will look for price to breach 1.2978 and go short. Our stop loss would be set to 1.2995 with Take Profits at 1.2957, 1.29396, 1.29093 and 1.28637, which are key pivot points.

EURUSD - Pivot Points

EURUSD - Bearish Outlook

After my recent post which pointed to a successful bullish wolfe wave being formed, the EURUSD is now all set to ride downhill. In the graph below, i've posted the Stochastic settings as well to confirm the key points of reversal.

What i've also done in this chart is drew a line parallel to the pivots 2 and 4. This is denoted by the blue dashed line. As I mentioned in my previous analysis of EURUSD, drawing a 2 - 4 parallel line shows potential areas where price could continue to rise.

As evident from the chart, price went into the zones between the 1, 3, 5 line and the 2, 4 parallel line that is drawn.

A conservative trade is to wait for EURUSD to drop to 1.2955 and then go short. Potential take profit levels would be 1.289, 1.286. All in all, this Wolfe wave is showing a potential drop to 1.27 region by the 24th of March. However, the drop is quite steep, unless we expect to see a gap in the EURUSD over the weekend. (Think, Cyprus).

However, let's not get carried away. In the chart below, I have plotted a 1, 3, 5 parallel line from pivot point 2. This level will be more ideal. So we are looking at 1.286 where this bearish rally will stop. (Refer to the highlighted area).

NZDUSD - Following up

The bearish bias continues but in the past hour, price has only been seen spiking. I thought I would revisit this trade and also inform readers that the analysis is still good.

I've added stochastics to the charts to get a better idea of price. As you can see, the bearish stoch hasn't been formed yet, which explains the bullish rise in price for NZDUSD in the past hour. At this point, we are quite close to getting a SELL signal from the Stochs so an entry at this point would be idea.

Revised take profit levels would be 0.82724, followed by  0.8235 and finally 0.814 (which will happen around next week).

EURUSD Touches 1.30 as expected

In my previous post I mentioned about the bullish wolfe wave on the EURUSD. While back at that time it seemed unlikely due to the prevailing negative market sentiment, it did seem like the Wolfe wave pattern was right.

However, the pair failed to reach the expected 'estimated price'. But what's interesting to note is that when you draw a parallel line to the 1 - 4 pivots, with 3 as the starting point, it typically shows the price projection.

While this might be a one off event, all future analysis of Wolfe waves will include this new finding to see how well it holds.

For now, Wolfe Waves continue to amaze me at how they can predict future price movements.

NZDUSD - Bearish Wolfe Wave

On the 1 hour chart for NZDUSD, a bearish Wolfe Wave pattern has emerged. This is also marked with the completed wave point 5, thus allowing us to take the trades.

In the picture below, I have marked all the points. The longest wave, wave 5 can be seen with a peak at 0.83443 We have the weekly resistance level of 0.8317. Therefore trades can be taken after this level has been breached. This weekly resistance level also coincides with 23.6% Fibonacci level.

An aggressive trade would be to go short with stops set at 0.8344 and take profits at 0.82928 (38.2), 0.82769 (50) We can expect a bit of retracement at the 38.2% level. Therefore, for the aggressive trades, we could set this level as take profit zone.

For a conservative trade, we can wait until 50% of the wave is retraced on the downtrend and set go short at 0.82717 with stops set to 0.82928 (38.2%), about 211 pips risk and take profits at 0.82609 (108 Pips), 0.8239 (327 Pips) which is the Weekly Pivot, 0.82281 (436 Pips), 0.82093 (624 Pips).

EURUSD Bullish Wave continues

So after close to 12 hours later, the EURUSD price continues to be bullish despite the negative market sentiment on account of the deadlock on the Cyprus bailout issue.

However, the price target of 1.30 seems quite doubtful given the fundamentals at play. It will be interesting to see how this trade will unfold and at what price level we can expect the pair to become bearish.

Below is the EURUSD chart.. continuation from yesterday's post. As you can see, price has moved quite a distance from yesterday's entry price.

In terms of the daily resistance levels, the pair has clearly breached R1 at 1.29426. R2 is at 1.30192 and R3 at 1.30689.

Conflicting Wolfe Waves - EURUSD

Elated by my success in accurately figuring out the EURUSD hitting 1.28 way back in late Februray, I did a bit of a Wolfe Wave analysis on the 1 hour chart for the EURUSD.

As you can see the price projections seem to run contrary to the prevailing fundamental factors in the Eurozone. Furthermore, the ETA projection also seems quite close, March 20th.

Times like these puts the entire trading system to test. As a precaution, I also included the Volumes to check if they satisfy the Wolfe wave conditions, which is, key pivot points usually see high volumes. The Blue vertical lines reflect just that, with the only exception of pivot 3 where volume is a bit subdued compared to the rest of the key levels.

Either ways, not to miss out on this, i'm long on a micro lot of 0.01, just to see how this will play out. Stops are a bit tight at 1.28130.

In the event price fails to reverse, i'm looking at a further drop to 1.27 region. In the picture below, the highlighted triangle shows the possible region where Wave 5 will end before we start riding it.

AUDUSD - Wolfe Wave Formation

Its been a while since I posted a new trade. Here we see the AUDUSD 4 hour chart and the formation of a Wolfe wave. Its still in the early stages so there is a good wave to ride.

I have placed a sell order at 1.03060 with take profit at 1.02034 and stop loss at 1.03335 (the point of wave 5). All in all, this trade looks to be quite interesting, given that the potential profit to be made is 1026 pips with risk at 275 pips.

I'm expecting this trade to close around the 17th of March.

EURCHF, GBPCHF - Trade Closed.

EURCHF trade has been closed. The reason being that upon re-drawing the Wolfe Waves, I noticed that the price had already peaked. Refer to the chart below for reference.

To Summarize:

Entry: 1.22689
Target: 1.2314
Closed at 1.22982

GBPCHF Trade got stopped out. Stop was moved to 1.42250.

AUDCAD, Going Short

Here is the 15 Minute chart for AUDCAD. It consists of Primary Wolfe Wave, Andrew's median line and a secondary Wolfe Wave plotted on the 5 minute chart.

Trade is short at 1.05566 with take profit at 1.05396 and stop loss at 1.05646

The reason for going short is determined by the Median lines. Prices touched the Median line before moving out of the lower median line.

If you look closely, we see that the primary Wolfe wave 2 and 4 also form the trigger line for Andrew's median line. We know that when price moves out of the LML and out of the lower trigger line, it is a sell signal.

Plotting the secondary Wolfe wave on the 5 minute chart also confirms this notion because we have a bearish wolfe wave that is formed. All in all, price is expected to drop to 1.05363. I will try to move my stops and also take profits so as to test this trade. Below the secondary wolfe wave, plotted in Red on the 5 minute chart.

Update on Trade Set ups 04/03

EURCAD - Stopped out

I called a short at 1.33639. The trade hit the stop loss at 1.34215 (I had moved the stops a bit closer to the entry). The price currently is bullish.

EURNZD - In the trade and positive

This is currently in the trade. The entry price was modified to 1.57716. Currently price is at 1.56844. Our take profit price is 1.58820. So there is still a long way to go.

AUDJPY - Still waiting for price to be triggered

Our sell stop was at 91.992 which is yet to be triggered. The trade will expire this Friday and currently the price is at 95.881 before coming close to our entry price at 92.951.

EURCHF - In the trade and positive

EURCHF is currently in the trade, with price at this moment at 1.23040. Our entry was 1.22689 and our take profit target is 1.2326. The stop loss has been moved to the entry price, so this trade is now risk free. However, I would hate to give up on the few pips made thus so far.

However, when drawing Wolfe Waves and Pitchfork manually, I noticed that the price had touched 1.23098 which is proving to be hard to breach. Price is still outside of the lower median line. A breach to this could well see price trying to move close to the median line itself. For now, I will move my target price to 1.23098 and move my stops even closer at 1.22945, or I just might close the trade within the next hour depending on the candle that comes up.

Just to note that this is the first trade I mentioned during the 04/03 set up. The next post I made doubting the trade infact turned out to be wrong. So I will be deleting the Pending SELL order.

CADJPY - Still waiting for price to be triggered

This trade is waiting to be triggered. Current price is at 90.83. However, the entry price seemed to be the resistance level, so it might be a difficult trade to end up positive. None the less, I will be watching this trade closely.

CHFJPY - Still waiting for price to be triggered

This pair has been ranging for quite a long time after reaching highs of 103.645. This gives me hope that perhaps we can see a bearish rally some time soon. The expiry time for the price is this Friday, but I might just extend it to next Friday to be sure not to miss this one out.

AUDUSD - Stopped out

This trade hit the stop loss, 1.02481. What went wrong with this analysis is that if you look at the daily chart, price touched the Wolfe Wave EPA line before turning back. It would have been a great trade if the entry price  was set to a sell limit somewhere below 1.02012.

NEW Trades

I took one some new trades today.

NZDUSD - Short @ 0.83145

In the chart below I have plotted both Wolfe waves and Median lines. The conviction to go short comes from the fact that price hovered around the median line, this it is likely to head back to the lower median line. Also we need this reversal in order that price can drop before going bullish in order to meet the EPA Wolfe Wave line. Previous attempts of reversal failed and price dropped. The region of 0.832 is proving to be hard for the pair to breach.

Target is set to 0.82925.

EURUSD - Going Short all the way to 1.2936

In this trade, i'm trying out something new. Combining Wolfe Waves along with Andrew's Pitchfork. In the below chart, we see a bearish Wolfe Wave pattern. I have then plotted the median line (Pitchfork) to see how price is behaving.

We see that price touched the median line and then started falling. I have placed a stop loss above the resistance point at 1.307 with take profit at 1.2936, the price where the Wolfe Waves, 2, 4, and 1, 4 converge.

Of course, the risk to this trade being that price could reverse back to the median line. However, considering that price did hover around the median line before turning lower, it would be a safe bet.

Entry was at 1.3057.

EURCHF - Wrong Wolfe Wave

Upon closer analysis, I discovered that the previous Wolfe Wave for the EURCHF was wrong as it was going against the trend. The H4 Chart below shows the manually drawn Wolfe Waves and also blends in with the overall downtrend of the EURCHF.

I will let the current EURCHF trade run its course while placing a pending SELL order close to the 38.2% Fib level, just below it (1.2216) with target price at 1.21811 or 23.6% level. The stop loss would be placed at the 50% Fib level of 1.22519.

Trade Set ups - 04/03

EURCAD, Daily - Short

Entry: 1.33639
S/L: 1.36261
Target: 1.31046

EURNZD, Daily - Short

Entry: 1.57529
S/L: 1.59389
Target: 1.53368

AUDJPY, Daily - Short

Entry: 91.992
S/L: 97.426
Target: 88.631

EURCHF, H4 - Long

Entry: 1.22689
S/L: 1.22368
Target: 1.2326

CADJPY, H4 - Long

Entry: 91.230
S/L: 90.458
Target: 91.81

CHFJPY, Daily - Short

Entry: 97.78
S/L: 102.64
Target: 91.926

AUDUSD, Daily - Short

Entry: 1.02079

S/L: 1.02481

Target: 1.01485

AUDCAD - A Perfect Wolfe Wave

I don't usually trade crosses, but I was randomly checking various pairs a while ago and came across the AUDCAD Daily Charts. The Wolfe Wave Pattern we see here is just perfect with price piercing the estimated price line. You can also notice how Waves 1, 2 and 5 correspond with sharp changes on the Schaff Trend Cycle.

This clearly goes to show how we can use the Schaff Trend Cycle to enable us to trade Wolfe wave patterns. In fact, should we ever come across accurate corresponding price reversals on Wolfe Waves, depicted by the Schaff Trend, we can simply assume that price will indeed touch the line connecting Waves 1 and 4. An even perfect trade set up would be to see converging lines from 1, 3, 5 and 2 and 4.

Below the AUDCAD Daily Chart which looks simply beautiful.

AUDCAD - Daily Charts - Perfect Wolfe Wave Formation

EURJPY - A Cautious Approach

The EURJPY Daily and H4 charts shows two Wolfe Wave Patterns, and both contradictory to each other. While the H4 Wolfe Wave pattern shows an upward bullish bias, the Daily chart shows a bearish bias.

The extremities in price shows a possible rally to the 126 price region on the four hour chart while the Daily chart shows a target price around the 98 price region.

So how do we trade such kind of a set up?

The first place to look for is to understand what the Schaff Trend Cycle is telling us.

EURJPY - H4 Chart Shows a Bull Run

On the H4 chart we see a bullish bias formed on the Schaff Trend while the Daily chart shows a bearish bias. One way to interpret this is to assume that price would rally a bit more before turning bearish. From the H4 chart, we see that after price dropped to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, price managed to rally all the way to the 61.8% region. Given that both Wolfe Waves and Schaff Trend analysis are inconclusive, we will have to look to the Fibonacci levels to give a sense of direction.

EURJPY Daily Chart shows a bearish formation

One would assume that price is currently retracing and we can expect to see a bearish rally that could possibly breach the 38.2% level and head to the 23.6% region of 116.883.

From a fundamental perspective, the week ahead is packed with economic events for both the EUR and JPY currencies, starting Monday when we will see economic data from Europe, starting with the Spanish unemployment report along with Thursday when we will have the BoJ's monetary policy statement.

A risky trade would be to wait until H4 Schaff Trend shows a bearish biash and the Daily chart is still bearish. However, this trade would have to be taken with caution because we have the 120.622 as a strong level of support, hinting at a ranging price.

Taking all the above into consideration, it would be sensible to stay off this pair for the moment until a proper direction is formed.

Trade Analysis, USDCHF, GBPCHF, EURUSD

Follow up to the trade set ups for the above pairs posted here, this is an analysis of these trades.

USDCHF - It seems like the pair is running out of steam. On the daily charts, we see price coming quite close to the 0.94624. In my analysis I mentioned that price could touch 0.93426. So this was a good trade. For now, we will wait until end of Monday or Tuesday to see if there is any new Wolfe wave patterns coming up.

GBPCHF - Our target price of 1.42887 hasn't been reached yet. We saw a bit of a bearish run to 1.40943 area. As I mentioned a potential entry at 1.41547, price is currently at 1.41642. The 76.4% level at 1.42104 needs to be breached in order to reach our target price. On the contrary, we could see price drop to 1.41120 area before going back up again. On the H1 chart, we have the 50% Fib level at 1.41493 and also we need to wait for the Schaff Trend Cycle to turn bullish. There is still some time for traders to enter this trade.

EURUSD - We expect this pair to drop sharply, however, there was a bit of a bullish run towards close of markets on Friday. The H4 chart still shows a bearish bias, but it can get tricky because on the H1 chart, we noticed a bullish climb on the Schaff Trend. Either ways, I don't expect EURUSD to go beyond 1.30763.

Wait for the H1 to turn bearish to get back into the trade with Stops placed at 1.3058

Wolfe Wave Trade Set ups - 3rd March

GBPCHF - H4 Chart, Potential LONG

The 4 hour GBPCHF chart has a wolfe wave already formed. A confirmation can be taken from the sharp change in Schaff Trend Cycle, at Wave 5. However, the Fibonacci Level of 76.4% or 1.42104 was tested and proved to be a strong resistance. A breach of this level will see price heading to 1.42925.

An ideal trade set up would be to wait for a breach of the 76.4% level, preferably a candle opening above this level with stop placed at 1.40926 and take profit at 1.42925.

In terms of risk to reward, this is a risky trade, but the price is likely to be hit. With a bit of caution and monitoring the chart in real time could help in placing a more conservative stop loss.

On the H1 chart, we see another target being formed at 1.42016. A breach above this level should give us the confirmation to go long. Also bear in mind that the Shcaff Trend Cycles for both H1 and H4 are still bearish, so we will wait until the cycle turns bullish.

CHFJPY - Daily Chart, Potential SHORT

The daily chart shows us a wolfe wave being formed along with the Schaff trend cycle confirming a reversal. The potential target for this trade could well be the 91.498, along with the possibility of price further heading down to 89.632.

If we check on shorter time frames, we notice the H1, H4 still showing a bullish bias on the Schaff Trend cycle. Waiting for a bearish turn of the cycle will provide an ideal entry point, which is likely to be between 50% and 38.2% regions.

A stop loss at 101.859 looks safe.

USDCHF - Trade Analysis, 01/03

0.94233 is proving to be a hard zone for the pair to breach. The first attempt failed and now the pair is going for a second try. I think it will take a few more kisses before this level can be breached. Placing pending LONG orders couple of pips above this level or waiting for a new candle to open comfortably above this level (a conservative approach) could enable those to get back into this trade.

The target price we're looking at 0.94694 through 0.94861.

EURUSD - Now Targeting 1.28

My previous post under 'Interesting Trades' was on the EURUSD eyeing the 1.29 zone. Well the pair did kiss this region and is currently flirting with 1.30 levels. The chart below shows a further drop is likely to the 1.28 region around the second week of March or perhaps as early as next week.

For those who feel they missed out the trade, look for retracements on Monday and enter.

Potential Trade Set ups 01/03

There are three really nice trades getting ready. If you have been following my previous posts, you might have guessed that USDCHF, GBPCHF and EURUSD are the three pairs in question.

Let me quickly run you through the set ups.

USDCHF - Bias is Bullish
Currently going through a retracement on the H1 chart. H4 Chart looks steadily bullish. Same with the Daily chart.

It is likely that price could touch 0.93426 or go lower to 0.93283 before going bullish again.

Placing LONG pending orders at both these levels is a decent entry. In terms of position size, let the first level be smaller lot while the second entry be a 1 Lot set up. Either ways, use caution. Stop loss should be 0.92789, yesterday's low.

GBPCHF - Bias is Bullish
Currently going through a retracement on the H1 chart. Price is expected to fall through to 1.41547 or in that region. Our target price is 1.42887.

Place LONG orders at or around the 1.41547 region. A definite confirmation would be 1.423 level.

EURUSD - Bias is Bearish
We expect EURUSD to drop to 1.29 region sometime mid March. Price is currently at 1.307 region. H4 shows a bullish Schaff Trend. So we must wait for the STC to turn bearish. H1 is also bullish, just crossing the 90 region on the STC.

Once H1 and H4 turn bearish, we are good to go.

Potential price entry would be 1.31161 or 1.3018. Our target price would be 1.33169. Its a bit too wide, but use judgement and place your stop accordingly. Yesterday's high was 1.31631, so this can be used a stop level as well.

If you want to grab a cup of coffee or do some errands, now is the right time. Expect some action towards the mid London trading session and definitely during the US trading session.

More to follow towards the end of the day.

GBPCHF H4 Chart, In Trade Analysis

The GBPCHF pair is also currently in a retracement mode. I've closed my trade and managed to get just 8 pips out of it. I'm to be blamed because I was too busy writing up stuff. Anyways, all is not lost. The GBPCHF Daily chart looks to be getting more and more bullish. The 4- hour chart is holding on and we are currently seeing a bearish retracement on the 1-hour chart.

Price could likely move to the 50% Fib for the retracement to end. However, i'll be looking keenly at the Schaff Trend Cycle in order to base my judgement. For those who missed this trade, TODAY is a great opportunity to enter LONG on the GBPCHF. Just wait for this retracement to end and once the STC turns bullish, we're off on our journey.

USDCHF Daily Chart, In Trade Analysis

This is a follow up to my trade set up on the USDCHF here. Overnight there was a decent movement since my entry at 0.93330 and price is currently at 0.93588. I moved my stops to 0.93530, locking in a total of 200 Pips.

Price is currently looking at a retracement, and can be clearly seen on the H1 chart. While I will wait for my stop to be taken out, I will be re-entering this trade as soon as the Schaff Trend Cycle switches to a bullish bias.

 

There could be a possible retracement to the 76.4% Fib and then price might get back to being bullish. Either ways, i'm happy with a 200 Pip profit and eager to ride this wave again. I'll be following up on this.

Possible entry could be at either 73.2 or if price drops a bit more, maybe a few pips below 73.2.

Fine tuning a trade - Wolfe Wave Trading system

I wrote an article on the Wolfe Wave Trading system. I mentioned that looking to the H4 chart is important in order to enter a trade that you might have missed. Below is the EURUSD chart which is a great example.

The EURUSD Daily chart. The Wolfe Wave set up shows a bearish pattern with price likely to fall.

The black arrows shows where the actual reversal happened. But for those who have missed, there is another point of entry. If you thought it would be great to ride this wave, then wait!! Look at the EURUSD chart on the 4 hour time frame.

We see another Wolfe Wave pattern that is formed. And this one looks bullish. The EPA on this chart shows a potential rise to 1.35424. So if you entered short blindly on the Daily chart, you would have got yourself in a messy situation.

The best entry under this circumstances would be to wait for a bearish bias to happen on the Schaff Trend cycle. Wolfe waves are not accurate all the time, and thus, it is possible that the Wolfe wave will fail on the H4 chart. But let's not 'assume' that to happen. The Schaff Trend cycle tells us that price tried to be bullish, but failed. (Look at the failed bullish cycle).

To be safe, we will place our entry on the EURUSD ONLY after the H4 Schaff Trend goes bearish.

EURCHF, H4 Wolfe Wave Set up

It looks like the CHF pairs are doing quite good in terms of Wolfe Wave patterns. Here is a 4-Hour chart on the EURCHF, which shows a nice uptrending move. So we go for a BUY order.

Entry: I'm sure you have missed the 23.6% Fib level entry @ 1.21968. But fret not, wait for the 38.2% entry @ 1.22678
TP: 1.23251
SL: Either 1.22436 or to be more safe (but more wide), 1.21968